ACUS48 KWNS 190847
SWOD48
SPC AC 190845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Sunday...
The upper-level trough over the West is forecast to take on more of
a positive tilt on Sunday, as an embedded shortwave and attendant
midlevel jet maximum move across the northern Rockies/High Plains.
As this occurs, a surface low is forecast to move from SD toward the
upper Great Lakes, as a trailing cold front moves through the
northern/central Plains. Guidance varies regarding frontal timing,
though generally agrees that stronger mid/upper-level flow will tend
to lag behind the front.

While details remain uncertain, strong to potentially severe storms
may develop near/north of the surface low across parts of the
Dakotas/MN, and also along the trailing cold front into the central
Plains.

...D5/Monday - D8/Thursday...
The upper ridge across the Southeast is expected to remain in place
through at least early next week, with some guidance suggesting
potential for deamplification by the middle of the week. Multiple
shortwaves may emerge from the persistent (though weakening) western
trough through at least Wednesday, resulting in some potential for
strong to severe storms along the periphery of the upper ridge from
the Plains into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes, and possibly
parts of the Northeast. However, predictability remains quite low
regarding the details of any organized severe threats during this
time frame.

..Dean.. 06/19/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 200844
SWOD48
SPC AC 200842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Monday...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over the northern
Plains and upper Midwest is forecast to move into Ontario on Monday,
along the northern periphery of an amplified upper ridge over the
eastern CONUS. A cold front will move through parts of the Great
Lakes, Upper Midwest and central Plains. The strongest deep-layer
flow may tend to lag behind the front, but moderate to strong
instability could support strong to potentially severe storms along
the front during the afternoon and evening.

Farther east, strong instability is generally forecast to develop
across parts of the Mid Atlantic into New England. However, due to
the influence of the upper ridge, there is currently little signal
for diurnal storm development across this region on Monday.

...D5/Tuesday...
Extended-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that a cold
front will move southward across the lower Great Lakes into New
England on Tuesday. Favorable low-level moisture and strong
instability could support severe-storm potential along the front
during the afternoon and evening. However, coverage of storms is
currently uncertain, due to the lingering influence of the upper
ridge, and a tendency for stronger large-scale ascent to be
displaced well north of the front.

The western upper trough is forecast to deamplify on Tuesday, with
most guidance suggesting that mid/upper-level flow will tend to
weaken downstream across the Great Plains and upper Midwest.
However, strong to locally severe storms could again be possible
near the front, which may begin to move northward across the central
Plains as a warm front through the day.

...D6/Wednesday - D8/Friday...
Predictability begins to wane by the middle of next week regarding
the evolution of synoptic features across the CONUS, though the same
general pattern of a weak upper trough in the West and an upper
ridge over the East may continue through at least Wednesday. In the
absence of any apparent strong forcing mechanisms, organized severe
potential (if any) may tend be focused near a convectively
influenced front across parts of the Plains into the Midwest and
Great Lakes.

..Dean.. 06/20/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 210843
SWOD48
SPC AC 210842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Tuesday...
Aside from some modest deamplification, little change to the
large-scale pattern is expected on Tuesday. An upper trough will
remain over the western CONUS, while an upper ridge persists over
the East.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will again be possible along the
western and northern periphery of the upper ridge, from the
central/southern High Plains into the Upper Midwest. Deep-layer flow
will generally be modest, but some severe threat could evolve in the
vicinity of an outflow-influenced front, in the presence of
favorable low-level moisture and moderate to strong buoyancy.

Farther east, a cold front is forecast to move southward across
parts of northern New England. Guidance varies regarding the extent
to which stronger deep-layer flow and large-scale ascent lag behind
the front, but moderate to strong buoyancy could support at least an
isolated severe threat during the afternoon and evening.

...D5/Wednesday...
Continued modest weakening of both the western trough and eastern
ridge is generally forecast on Wednesday. Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms will again be possible from the High Plains into the
Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast, along the periphery of the
ridge. Deep-layer flow is expected to be relatively weak across most
areas, but mesoscale corridors of somewhat greater severe threat
could evolve within this pattern.

...D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday...
Predictability of the large-scale pattern begins to notably decrease
by the end of next week. In general, an upper ridge may persist over
the Southeast, while one or more mid/upper-level shortwave troughs
move across the northern CONUS. This pattern may eventually yield an
increasing threat for organized severe storms across the northern Rockies/Plains and Upper Midwest, but details are very uncertain at
this forecast range.

..Dean.. 06/21/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 220834
SWOD48
SPC AC 220832

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Wednesday...
Extended-range guidance generally indicates that the persistent
upper ridge across the eastern CONUS will begin to dampen on
Wednesday. Multiple low-amplitude midlevel shortwave troughs will
move along the periphery of the upper ridge from the
central/northern High Plains into the Great Lakes. Mid/upper-level
flow will generally be rather weak, but may be locally stronger in
the vicinity of any shortwave troughs.

Some severe threat could develop where pockets of somewhat stronger
flow overlap moderate to strong buoyancy along the periphery of the
ridge. An MCS may develop late on D3/Tuesday and move across parts
of the central Plains and Midwest into at least early Wednesday.
This MCS could persist through the day, with additional development
possible along an outflow-influenced front. Other strong to severe
storms may again develop across parts of the central/northern High
Plains. Confidence regarding the details of any organized severe
threat is too low to delineate a 15% area at this time.

...D5/Thursday - D8/Sunday...
Guidance generally suggests that the persistent upper ridge will
continue to weaken with time, resulting in a more zonal pattern by
the upcoming weekend. Stronger flow may become increasingly confined
to the northern tier of states. This could lead to periodic severe
threats across parts of the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and
Northeast.

One area of interest is across parts of the northern Plains Friday
into Saturday. Some guidance takes a mid/upper-level shortwave
trough from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Plains
during this period, where it may impinge upon increasing low-level
moisture and instability, resulting in potential for organized
severe storms.

..Dean.. 06/22/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 230901
SWOD48
SPC AC 230859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Thursday: Parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes...
An area of interest for severe-storm potential on Thursday resides
from eastern IA/southeast MN into northern IL/southern WI. A
mid/upper-level shortwave trough is generally forecast to move
across parts of the Midwest into the Great Lakes during the
afternoon, potentially accompanied by a frontal wave. While
deep-layer flow will generally remain rather modest, rich low-level
moisture and strong heating will support moderate to strong buoyancy along/south of the front. Strong to potentially severe storms may
develop as the approaching shortwave trough impinges upon the
favorable buoyancy. Uncertainty regarding frontal position and the
sufficiency of deep-layer shear precludes higher confidence at this
time.

...D5/Friday: Northern Plains...
An area of interest for Friday resides across parts of the northern
Great Plains. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move
across the northern Rockies toward the northern High Plains, though considerable spread remains regarding the timing of this relatively low-amplitude shortwave and attendant cold front. The front may
impinge upon strong instability across parts of the Dakotas, with
scattered storm and eventual MCS development possible. Deep-layer
shear may remain relatively modest, but the magnitude of instability
will likely support some organized severe threat.

...D6/Saturday: Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
Some continuation of severe-storm potential is possible into
Saturday, potentially shifting eastward into the Upper Midwest.
Spread in guidance becomes quite large at this range regarding
placement of the warm sector Saturday afternoon, but strong
instability and at least modest deep-layer shear could support
severe storms along/east of the cold front.

..Dean.. 06/23/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 240858
SWOD48
SPC AC 240857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Models are in good agreement with the overall pattern through
Tuesday/D8, depicting a low-amplitude trough moving from the
northwestern states on Friday/D4 across the northern tier of states
and toward the Great Lakes by around Sunday/D6. This wave is then
forecast to amplify across Ontario/Quebec through the end of the
period, with cooler/more stable air pushing south with a cold front
from the Midwest into the Northeast.

Severe storms are currently forecast over parts of the Dakotas into
northwest MN on Friday/D4 as the stronger flow aloft interacts with
a moist and unstable air mass already in place. Damaging winds
appear the most likely mode of severe, along with sporadic large
hail as storms form during the afternoon within a surface trough,
and beneath increasing winds aloft. While severe storms may also
occur on Saturday/D5 over parts of the northern Plains or upper MS
Valley, predictability is lower given expected storms the previous
day and potential for long-lived convective systems. However, given
such strong instability forecast on Saturday/D5, a risk area is
likely to be issued in later outlook cycles over parts of the upper
Midwest/MS Valley.

Elsewhere, daily thunderstorms within the moist and unstable air
mass are forecast for the bulk of CONUS from the Plains eastward,
though in a generally weak shear environment. Portions of those
areas may see low/marginal probabilities as the events enter into
the Day 3 outlook time frame.

..Jewell.. 06/24/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 250830
SWOD48
SPC AC 250829

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Models are in general agreement with the upper air pattern, but
increasing spread is seen from Sunday/D5 and beyond.

On Saturday/D4, a low amplitude wave will lift out of the
ND/northern MN vicinity and move into Ontario. This will result in
temporary height rises during the day before gradual falls occur
overnight and into as a secondary wave moves from MT into the
Dakotas overnight. Early day storms may exist over parts of northern
MN in association with the low-level jet, and this activity could
weaken during the day. Then, strong instability is forecast for
several models, perhaps MUCAPE to around 5000 J/kg, over eastern SD
and NE and into IA and MN. Heating within the surface trough may
spur afternoon development from SD into NE, with some potential for
activity to spread east/northeast. However, shear will likely be
weak, with 500 mb winds averaging around 15 kt. Despite very strong instability, the weak-forcing situation in the wake of the exiting
wave suggests low-predictability at this time.

Around Sunday/D5, the secondary wave is forecast to amplify across
the upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes, with a cold front pushing
south and extending roughly from WI to NE. Strong instability will
likely exist ahead of such a boundary, though shear will again be
weak. Still, storms will likely develop across the region, with
areas of damaging gusts potential.

From Monday/D6 through Wednesday/D8, the aforementioned trough will
spread across the Great Lakes and Northeast, with what appears to be
an end to the extreme instability levels. Scattered storms will
likely persist over much of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic, with
sporadic strong gusts daily.

..Jewell.. 06/25/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 260854
SWOD48
SPC AC 260852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
On the large scale, a low-amplitude upper trough over the northern
Plains on Sunday/D4 will amplify as it moves toward the upper Great
Lakes into Monday/D5, and more so into Tuesday/D6 when it will
stretch across into the Northeast.

At the surface, high pressure will extend into the northern to
central Plains on Sunday/D4, with a trough affecting the upper MS
Valley to central Plains. This trough/front will push farther south
on Monday/D5, extending roughly from the OH Valley into the southern
Plains, and eventually, into the Gulf Coast states into Wednesday/D7
as high pressure spreads into the MS Valley.

For the period, instability looks to be strongest on Sunday/D4 ahead
of the front from NE/KS into IA/MO/IL with upper 60s to lower 70s F
dewpoints common. While unstable, only weak westerly flow aloft will
be present, and this will likely result in south to southwest
propagating cluster of storms producing areas of gusty winds. Given
substantial storm coverage over much of the central Plains to
upper/middle MS Valley, predictability remains low for denoting
precise risk areas.

A low-end risk of severe storms with wind potential could develop
into the Mid Atlantic on Tuesday/D6 as the Great Lakes/Northeast
trough amplifies with westerlies increasing to 30 to perhaps 40 kt
at 500 mb. Otherwise, scattered storms will also occur away from
this boundary, across much of the Southeast as the moisture and
instability remain in place in a weak shear environment.

..Jewell.. 06/26/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 270856
SWOD48
SPC AC 270855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level trough will amplify across the Great Lakes at the
beginning of the period D4/Monday and shift into the Northeast by
Tuesday. A surface cold front will shift east across the Great Lakes
on Monday and to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. Moderate instability may develop across a large area east of the Appalachians
on Day 5/Tuesday. The strongest shear is forecast from Pennsylvania
northward, beneath the strongest mid-level flow. However, the
greatest instability should remain mostly south of this better flow.
Therefore, a favorable corridor may develop for some strong to
severe storms near the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas where instability and
modest shear overlap, but this remains too uncertain for severe
weather probabilities at this time.

Beyond Day 5, mid-level ridging will shift east across the central
CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will build across much of the
eastern CONUS. The combination of weak mid-level flow beneath the
mid-level ridge and surface high pressure should limit severe
weather potential for Day 6 and beyond. Strong instability is
forecast to return to the northern Plains, but given the lack of
mid-level flow, any storms will likely only be marginally severe at
best. Some stronger mid-level flow may return to the northern Plains
by next weekend as the ridge starts to break down, which may be the
next chance for more organized severe storms in the latter portion
of the extended period.

..Bentley.. 06/27/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 280801
SWOD48
SPC AC 280800

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level trough will move from the Great Lakes to the Northeast
on Day 4/Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will move east
through the period. Moderate instability is expected along this
front and some severe weather may be possible from the Mid-Atlantic
to the Northeast. Slight risk (15%) probabilities may eventually be
needed within this zone, but there is potential for
cloudcover/thunderstorm activity from Monday evening to impact
destabilization. Therefore, confidence is not high enough for
probabilities at this time.

Beyond Day 4, a relative lull in severe weather potential is
expected. Multiple reinforcing mid-level troughs will amplify the
larger-scale trough across the eastern CONUS. As this occurs, the
surface cold front will move south, potentially to the Gulf Coast
and into the western Atlantic. This will eliminate the very moist
airmass which resulted in moderate to strong instability across much
of the eastern CONUS for the past few weeks.

The greater low-level moisture is expected to remain and perhaps
advect north across the central Plains beneath a large-scale ridge.
This could result in some thunderstorm activity, but shear is
expected to be very weak, and the building ridge aloft may suppress
convection on D5/Wednesday to D6/Thursday.

By next weekend, this ridge is expected to flatten with some
stronger mid-level flow moving across the northern Plains. The exact
evolution of the upper-pattern remains uncertain and therefore,
confidence is low, but severe weather chances may increase across
the northern Plains by next weekend.

..Bentley.. 06/28/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 290820
SWOD48
SPC AC 290819

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0319 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The cold front which may result in severe weather on Day 3/Tuesday
will move into the Atlantic and near the Gulf Coast across Florida.
A reinforcing mid-level trough will maintain northerly flow across
the eastern CONUS as an area of high pressure builds into the
region. A drier, more continental airmass across the eastern CONUS
will keep severe weather chances minimal.

Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will remain across the Plains,
beneath a strong upper-level ridge. By the time the ridge starts to
break down on Day 6/Friday some severe weather is possible as a
mid-level trough moves into the northern Plains. However, the ECMWF
shows less than 20 knots of flow across the Plains. Therefore, shear
will likely be limited. Thunderstorms will be likely along the cold
front as it traverses the central and eastern CONUS next weekend.
However, the lack of stronger mid-level flow casts doubt on storm
organization. Therefore, no severe weather probabilities have been
added at this time.

..Bentley.. 06/29/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 300855
SWOD48
SPC AC 300853

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level ridge will start the extended period across the Plains
on D4/Thursday. This ridge will shift east through the extended
period. A surface low will develop in the lee of the Rockies and
move slowly north and east, reaching eastern Ontario by D7/Sunday.
This surface low and its associated cold front will likely be the
only potential for any severe weather during the extended period.
However, at this time it appears the stronger shear will be well
displaced from the greater instability. Therefore, severe weather
probabilities are not necessary at this time.

Outside of this frontal zone during the Day 4 to Day 7 period,
thunderstorms are likely. However, weak lapse rates and very weak
shear is anticipated, with minimal storm organization.

..Bentley.. 06/30/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 010902
SWOD48
SPC AC 010900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level trough will traverse the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest on Friday. This will likely be the most substantial severe
weather threat during the extended period before broad, strong
ridging builds across much of the eastern/central CONUS.

...Day 4/Friday...
As a positively tilted mid-level trough traverses the northern
Plains on Friday, strong southerly flow will advect moisture
northward across a broad warm sector near the Upper Midwest. This
will result in moderate to strong instability as temperatures warm
well into the 80s. Widespread thunderstorms are likely along the
frontal zone during the afternoon/evening. 35 to 40 knots of
mid-level flow will overspread the warm sector which will provide
some shear for storm organization. However, southwesterly surface
winds will also increase during the afternoon within the warm front
and therefore, the net shear may remain somewhat minimal. Some
organized storms with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts
are possible, but the aforementioned concerns about deep-layer shear
preclude the confidence needed for 15% severe weather probabilities
at this time.

Beyond Day 4, moderate to strong instability is forecast across much
of the central and eastern CONUS with widespread thunderstorm
activity likely. However, shear will remain mostly nebulous with the
stronger mid-level flow confined to areas north of the better
instability. Therefore, some marginal regional severe weather threat
will be likely most days, but a more organized severe weather risk
appears unlikely at this time.

..Bentley.. 07/01/2025

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