• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1442

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 25 22:00:33 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 252200
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 252200=20
    WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-252330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1442
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0500 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

    Areas affected...portions of southeast Minnesota...extreme northeast
    Iowa...and far southwestern Wisconsin

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 461...

    Valid 252200Z - 252330Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 461 continues.

    SUMMARY...A tornado and severe gust risk will continue with ongoing
    storms. The best chance for tornadoes will exist with low-topped
    supercells traversing a diffuse baroclinic boundary.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple low-topped supercells have developed and are
    traversing a diffuse west-to-east baroclinic boundary, where strong
    low-level shear is in place. The most recent ARX VAD shows a
    sizeable, curved hodograph and nearly 200 m2/s2 in the surface-500 m
    layer. As such, tornadoes and severe gusts remain a concern with the
    stronger storms, particularly with any low-topped supercells that
    continue to traverse the boundary, where maximum ingestion of
    streamwise vorticity may be realized.

    ..Squitieri.. 06/25/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9P8qBLIzSlh6fc7ecX3L9hmof2SzObA1cxsgWMdLSjE7wL8OH-NfnK89YklEm-TgQG60AQBa2= 8cUMoOhgjgyek7o_jo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...

    LAT...LON 43629401 43869413 44259371 44669310 44829285 44669136
    44149045 43479061 43159137 43139258 43209308 43629401=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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