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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1458

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 26 19:43:43 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 261943
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 261943=20
    WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-262115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1458
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0243 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of extreme northeast IA...southeast
    MN...southwest WI

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 463...

    Valid 261943Z - 262115Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 463 continues.

    SUMMARY...Both an eastward-moving convective line and developing
    cells ahead of the line could pose a tornado threat this afternoon.
    Localized damaging wind is also possible.

    DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms has developed from southeast MN
    into north-central IA, with additional cells gradually developing
    east of the line into parts of southwest WI. MLCAPE has increased
    into the 1000-1500 J/kg along and immediately north of the warm
    front, with a more stable environment farther north, where clouds
    have persisted and temperatures are in the 60s F.=20

    The broken line moving across far southeast MN earlier produced a
    reported tornado in Freeborn County, and this portion of the line
    will continue to pose a tornado threat as it traverses the warm
    frontal zone, where low-level shear/SRH is locally enhanced (as
    noted in the KARX VWP). The developing cells east of the line could
    also begin to pose a tornado threat, especially if one or more of
    these cells can mature and take on more of a front-parallel motion,
    leading to increased residence time in the frontal zone. Cell
    mergers into the primary line could also result in locally increased
    tornado potential.=20

    Aside from the tornado potential, locally damaging wind will
    continue to be possible with the primary convective line as it moves
    eastward this afternoon.

    ..Dean.. 06/26/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-MuheXw56B1CiJTCCyx6geEsoMNjgZGV4A2nugpV-v7cjaRtQ2pfHh5yBArQTKeF2zg2dseOE= l2JVLOC7mkW63lA45Y$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX...

    LAT...LON 44179241 44209163 44109074 43979004 43689005 43209016
    43369100 43449174 43479251 43659255 44179241=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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