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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1479

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 27 23:48:19 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 272347
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 272347=20
    NEZ000-SDZ000-280045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1479
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0647 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

    Areas affected...central Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 467...

    Valid 272347Z - 280045Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 467
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe gusts remain possible with several clusters of
    strong to severe storms ongoing across NE. Some hail is also
    possible.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2340 UTC, regional radar imagery showed several
    clusters of strong to severe storms ongoing across WW467. Mostly
    outflow dominate, these clusters should persist in an unstable
    environment (3000+ j/kg MLCAPE) supportive of strong updrafts. The
    degree of buoyancy and steep low-level lapse rates suggest damaging
    gusts and some hail will remain possible with these clusters as they
    slowly move eastward this evening.=20

    The severe threat should continue this evening, though the eastern
    extent of the more robust threat remains somewhat unclear. So far
    storm organization has been limited, and MLCIHN has started to
    slowly increase from warm mid-level temperatures and weaker forcing
    ascent displaced to the north. As the storms and outflow continue
    eastward the severe threat may extended beyond the eastern edge of
    Watch 467. Some model guidance shows an uptick in convective
    coverage later as the low-level jet increases, but this remains
    unclear. A local extension of WW467 may be needed should storms show
    an increase in intensity.

    ..Lyons.. 06/27/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-YEVxXffOX7tQoaEHIElNihm33G4rZriDZ0ZB53m8Jiz5l0SQ7ZM-ZERNbtt2BSF6kTDej3IR= 7CeCyh_S-wIf8lpNmk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 40820186 41180213 42640156 43060086 43039928 42319917
    41030014 40740086 40820186=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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