ACUS11 KWNS 280434
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280434=20
SDZ000-NDZ000-280530-

Mesoscale Discussion 1485
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Areas affected...Eastern South Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469...

Valid 280434Z - 280530Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469
continues.

SUMMARY...Storms in North Dakota could threaten extreme northern
South Dakota, which could justify a local watch extension. However,
the overall severe threat has diminished and the majority of the
watch can be cancelled or allowed to expire at 05z.

DISCUSSION...The earlier bowing cluster has moved southeast of
severe thunderstorm watch 469, and the other convection has
weakened. Though some elevated convection could form later tonight
atop the lingering cold pools, the near-surface stabilization
beneath a warm elevated mixed layer suggests that new severe storm
development is unlikely. The ongoing tornadic supercells in south
central ND could just cross into northern SD, and a small watch
extension may need to be considered for northern SD. The severe
threat farther to the south appears to have ended and the majority
of the watch can be cancelled or allowed to expire at 05z.

..Thompson.. 06/28/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4ytqLeUICunP0Tm0kOJXh7o6ntxuPmS4sxjJUcwEXCmqucyrb_Y21Fvj2BC6OYxJJSptQnn2x= cm537QgRdL6KhUuyp8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 45019789 43549707 43059748 43129840 43919920 44739958
45969991 45999938 45969846 45019789=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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