ACUS11 KWNS 281833
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281833=20
NYZ000-PAZ000-282000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1491
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Areas affected...Portions of central Pennsylvania into central New
York

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 471...

Valid 281833Z - 282000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 471
continues.

SUMMARY...Multiple strong, damaging gusts may still occur with an eastward-advancing MCS, as well as with other strong storms that
manage to materialize over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...An MCS, with a history of producing multiple damaging
gusts, continues to advance eastward across central PA. Ahead of
this MCS, strong surface heating amid minimal convective inhibition
is supporting up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Given marginal vertical wind
shear in the region, the MCS should continue eastward with a
damaging gust threat for a few more hours. However, the presence of
billow clouds, along with mesoanalysis output, suggest that stable
conditions exist downstream over eastern PA toward NJ. While airmass modification should occur through the remainder of the afternoon, it
is unclear how residual stability would impact the downstream
damaging gust threat.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/28/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-GVqkOEF76XomNUfSsvDNQ9uXaFcy71s3u9BZSYcNeHc0ooOKALYQLSZuQwYNTa3BwWSDQMcz= cUL2hsA1u-gTwnUuLk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

LAT...LON 39927947 40977866 41687796 42197748 43347580 43547539
43537519 43227498 42587497 41987502 41347538 40827592
40407637 40087699 39847758 39807851 39927947=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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