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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1492

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 28 18:52:53 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 281851
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 281851=20
    MNZ000-NDZ000-282015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1492
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0151 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

    Areas affected...eastern ND and far northwest MN

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 281851Z - 282015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally strong gusts may initially
    develop along a cold front in eastern North Dakota, and could be
    sustained through late afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch
    issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...Early storm development is underway along the weak
    surface cold front, likely aided by a minor mid-level impulse
    upstream over central ND. Recent HRRR runs have trended towards this
    earlier and farther north regime, unlike the bulk of 12Z HREF
    guidance which indicated that far northeast SD into west-central MN
    will be the genesis region later today. With influence of a decayed
    MCS likely delaying that latter regime until evening, the short-term
    severe threat into late afternoon may be confined to a portion of
    eastern ND into far northwest MN. Low-level winds should remain weak
    and generally veered, yielding minimal hodograph curvature. But this
    combined with moderate buoyancy/deep-layer shear should result in
    primarily a large hail threat. Overall storm coverage could be
    fairly isolated, especially given the lack of cumulus ahead of the
    front this early in the afternoon.

    ..Grams/Hart.. 06/28/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5AuU1h1CHuRrOOQYtJ80DxSVyJ2WMgxd9dvT8zh9oM9Al78FuSbieRCf5YpTsjO6-TPusuWEe= 57wzzFP25nsNBIVoeg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

    LAT...LON 47409879 48039857 48469814 48429711 48139666 47619648
    46729635 46349652 46129671 46109842 46589912 47139894
    47409879=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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