ACUS11 KWNS 281947
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281947=20
SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-282145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1493
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Areas affected...western SD...far northeast WY/southeast MT

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 281947Z - 282145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and localized severe gusts may
accompany initial storms along the north side of the Black Hills. A
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Initial Cb development is underway near the MT/WY/SD
border area, within an upslope flow, post-frontal regime along the
northern portion of the Black Hills. This orographic ascent will be
necessary to sustain storms amid greater MLCIN farther southeast per
the 18Z UNR sounding. With moderate mid-level west-southwesterlies
atop the low-level northerlies, effective bulk shear will be
sufficient for supercell structures. With a ribbon of low 60s
surface dew points from far northeast WY across northwest SD,
moderate MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg should be maintained. Large hail
should be the main hazard. Overall convective coverage may remain
isolated and largely tied to the terrain through late afternoon.

..Grams/Hart.. 06/28/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_dVEhih6Yi5iWCpcFIGG06lXRqwBfXEWMFh0b3gqRrYawf7KLlnPu-onfB29-NbC-HaBLXEfI= qmKXy7Ht2OyOVwofPY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...

LAT...LON 45890260 45460259 44410278 44030353 44390421 44340520
44420533 44770534 45170507 45820396 45890260=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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