1. Forum
  2. Fidonet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1501

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 29 03:02:54 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 290301
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 290301=20
    SDZ000-NEZ000-290500-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1501
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1001 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

    Areas affected...Southern South Dakota and northern Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 290301Z - 290500Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase overnight near the
    Nebraska/South Dakota border. If sufficient clustering of
    convection occurs, then there will be the potential for severe
    outflow gusts and a watch may need to be considered by about 04-05z.

    DISCUSSION...An earlier supercell has dissipated across south
    central SD, but new convection has been forming to the west atop
    outflow and a surface cold front. As a 25-35 kt southerly low-level
    jet forms, warm advection atop the frontal surface will increase,
    coincident with an increase in midlevel moisture from the west that
    is related to earlier high-based convection in WY/NE Panhandle.=20
    This scenario will favor an increase in elevated convection near the
    NE/SD border through the overnight hours. Though this corridor is
    along the southern edge of the midlevel westerlies, midlevel lapse
    rates remain very steep (8.5 C/km or greater) and profiles will
    still be favorable for both strong updrafts and downdrafts. If
    sufficient clustering of storms can occur, then there will be some
    concern for severe outflow gusts and isolated large hail, and the
    conditional potential for a severe thunderstorm watch by roughly
    04-05z.

    ..Thompson/Guyer.. 06/29/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4iOvvYen3rgFwE3CLGuMl-AwLPR1mcBFk4LZuAxgWnhaoKJhtBTMbJePdsAaRwqrFmv-AojFc= URh1kPUt85PmCmR1Sk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 42479905 42470128 42620221 43140229 43320186 43610026
    43649893 43239857 42749870 42479905=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)