ACUS02 KWNS 160602
SWODY2
SPC AC 160601

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday night from
portions of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Supercells
with very large hail and tornadoes are possible, before upscale
storm growth leads to an increase in the wind damage threat.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough currently across the Pacific Northwest will
deepen D2/Sunday, moving across Great Basin into the Four Corners
into early D3/Monday. Elevated convection will likely be ongoing at
the start of the period across portions of northern Nebraska into
Iowa. Westerly flow will overspread the central/northern Plains as a
lead shortwave moves across western Kansas into Nebraska through the
day before shifting into the Upper Midwest. A surface cyclone will
deepen across eastern Colorado/western Kansas with strong moist
southerly flow and mid 60s dew points extending across much of the
central and southern Plains. Thunderstorm development is expected by
the afternoon from a stationary boundary/warm front across central
Nebraska southward to the dryline across central Kansas and perhaps
as far south as the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles.

...NE to MN...

Strong daytime heating and destabilization should occur behind
morning convection across Nebraska into Iowa through broken cloud
cover. Better clearing will be possible across
southeastern/south-central Nebraska where fewer clouds will be
present. Overall, a broad corridor of MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg
and strong deep layer shear should extend across southern Nebraska
into western Iowa just south of the warm front. Strengthening
southerly 700-850 mb flow is expected through the afternoon, with a
low-level jet around 40-50 kts across central Kansas into eastern
Nebraska. By the afternoon, guidance suggests that supercells may
develop near the stationary front/warm front in eastern Nebraska.
Given the environment, these will be capable of large to very large
hail (some 2-3 inches), damaging wind, and a few tornadoes (some
strong). Through time, convection will likely cluster and grow
upscale with a damaging wind threat continuing downstream into
southeast SD, northwest IA and southwest MN through Sunday night.

...Western KS to TX Panhandles...

Forcing for ascent will be weaker with southern extent into western Kansas/western Oklahoma near the dryline. Soundings across these
regions also indicate capping at the base of the EML, which may be
difficult to overcome. Nonetheless, a few isolated supercells may
develop along the dryline as the low-level jet increases through the
evening. These will pose a risk for large to very large hail and
damaging winds.

..Thornton.. 05/16/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 080548
SWODY2
SPC AC 080546

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely to develop across parts of
the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon
into night. Very large hail, tornadoes, a few of which could be
strong, and damaging winds with significant gusts appear likely.
Farther south, widely scattered severe storms capable of very large
hail and damaging winds with significant gusts will be possible
across portions of the central Plains Tuesday afternoon into night.
Additional, more isolated storms capable of large hail and damaging
winds are possible from parts of the Midwest into lower Ohio Valley
Tuesday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough initially over the northern Rockies Tuesday
morning will accelerate northeast into the north Plains, ahead of a
more significant vorticity maximum and associated mid/upper-level
jet streaks moving into the northern and central Plains Tuesday night.

At the surface, low pressure is expected develop from southeast MT
into northwest ND during the day, along a Pacific front or
dryline-like boundary shifting east through the northern High
Plains. Meanwhile, a boundary initially across northern SD into
northwest MN will retreat north to the International Border as a
warm front. Elsewhere, a diffuse warm or quasi-stationary front will
reside across portions of the mid MO Valley into mid MS Valley.

...Northern Plains into upper Mississippi Valley...

A 30-40 kt low-level jet will enhance moisture return south of warm
front and beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates, with
MLCAPE increasing to 2500-3500+ J/kg by afternoon within the
poleward expanding warm sector. Height falls attendant to lead
short-wave trough coupled with convergence in the vicinity of the
surface low and Pacific front/dryline are expected to foster
scattered thunderstorm development by mid/late afternoon over the
western Dakotas.

Strengthening deep-layer shear to 40-50 kt at a substantial angle to
the surface front will support rapid evolution into supercells,
which could initially be a bit higher based, given initiation on the
western edge of richer, boundary-layer moisture. Large to very large
hail will be the primary hazard initially. Tornado potential is
expected to increase through the evening as storms move east into an increasingly moist and more strongly sheared low-level environment.
Model forecast soundings indicate large, clockwise-curved hodographs
with substantial SRH. However, there is some uncertainty as to what
the predominant storm mode will be during the time of the low-level
shear amplification. As such, this forecast will include a 10%
unconditional tornado probability with a conditional intensity group
one. Higher values may be required in subsequent forecasts if
confidence increases in a sustained discrete or semi-discrete storm mode.

At some point, storms are expected to grow upscale into an MCS along
coalescing storm-scale cool pools, signaling an increasing damaging
wind risk across the Red River Valley Tuesday night.

...Central Plains...

Recent model runs have trended toward an earlier arrival of the
upstream short-wave trough mentioned in the synopsis, which results
in meaningful height falls overspreading the dryline during the
latter half of the diurnal heating cycle. Various models indicate
the development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm
development by mid/late afternoon across western parts of NE and KS,
perhaps as far southwest as northeast NM. Initial storms will form
in a hot, deeply mixed boundary layer with steep low/mid-level lapse
rates contributing to moderate instability. Initially marginal
deep-layer shear is forecast to strengthen by late afternoon into
Tuesday evening, with the environment becoming supportive of
high-based supercells capable of severe wind gusts and large hail.

There is some model suggestion that the initial high-based storms
may evolve into an MCS that progresses from central NE and northern
KS through the mid MO Valley Tuesday night. Given the strongly
unstable air mass forecast along the path of the MCS, the potential
would exist for a substantial damaging wind event, including the
possibility of intense wind gusts. Confidence in that scenario is
low, which precludes the addition of higher unconditional
probabilities. However, a conditional intensity group one has been
added to acknowledge the potential magnitude of such an event.

...Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley...

A moderate to strongly unstable air mass is expected to develop
Tuesday afternoon in the vicinity of a diffuse warm front or
quasi-stationary boundary oriented northwest-to-southeast across the
region. Storm coverage remains uncertain, which precludes higher
unconditional severe probabilities. Nonetheless, the potential for
large hail and damaging wind gusts will exists with any storms that
can become sustained in that thermodynamic environment.

..Mead.. 06/08/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 090541
SWODY2
SPC AC 090540

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA...MUCH OF WISCONSIN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA...AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms capable of large hail in
excess of two inches in diameter, a few strong tornadoes, and
damaging winds with gusts in excess of 75 mph appear likely across
portions of the upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest Wednesday
afternoon into night. More sporadic occurrences of large hail and
damaging winds are possible into the central and southern Plains,
and from the lower Great Lakes toward the Mid-Atlantic coast.

...Synopsis...

An upper low along the MT-SK border Wednesday morning is forecast to
deepen while redeveloping to along the ND-MB border Wednesday night.
That intensification process will be driven by mid/upper-level jet
streaks moving through the base of broader-scale trough, in tandem
with an amplifying short-wave trough. A lead disturbance initially
over the northern High Plains Wednesday morning will accelerate
northeast into the Upper MS Valley by evening, along with the
leading edge of stronger mid/upper-level jet streak winds.

At the surface, an area of low pressure over eastern SD Wednesday
morning will develop north-northeast into southeast MB by evening,
while a trailing cold front advances through the upper MS Valley
into the upper Great Lakes. The trailing extension of the boundary
from the mid MO Valley into KS will move more slowly through the day
before stalling and then lifting north Wednesday night in response
to cyclogenesis over the central Plains. A dryline will intersect
the front over southwest KS Wednesday afternoon, with that feature
extending southwest into western TX.

...Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes into the Central and
Southern Plains...

Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing Wednesday morning across
portions of MN and WI, aided by warm advection along a nocturnal
low-level jet. Residual convective outflow boundaries from the
early-day storms and the approaching cold front are expected to
focus the most intense thunderstorm development, which may occur by
early afternoon across northern and central parts of MN. Subsequent south/southwestward storm development is expected by mid/late
afternoon along and ahead of the front from southern MN and western
WI through central/eastern IA, northern MO, into eastern/southern
KS, and perhaps into western OK and northwest TX.

Rich boundary-layer moisture, characterized by dewpoints in the
upper 60s to low/mid 70s will coincide with a plume of steep
mid-level lapse rates to yield moderate to strong afternoon
instability with MLCAPE increasing to 2000-4000+ J/kg across the
warm sector. Deep-layer shear will strengthen through the afternoon
into evening with the arrival of the jet streaks, especially across
the upper MS Valley into upper Great Lakes where effective bulk
shear magnitudes of 50-60 kt are forecast.

The expected CAPE-shear combination will support numerous severe
storms that begin as supercells capable of large to very large hail
and some tornado threat, with an eventual transition to a more of a cold-pool-driven convective system with embedded bowing structures
by evening across portions of the Upper Midwest, potentially into
Great Lakes. Damaging wind potential, including the possibility for
75+ mph wind gusts would likewise increase with that mode
transition, as would a continued tornado threat with line-embedded meso-vortices. The greatest potential for a few strong tornadoes is
expected to develop with any sustained supercells across portions of
eastern MN, WI, eastern IA, and northwest IL in the proximity of a strengthening low-level jet, which will enhance near-ground shear.

Storms are expected to be increasingly more isolated in nature with southwestward extent along the front and dryline from eastern KS
into western OK and northwest TX. Nonetheless, the degree of
instability coupled with around 30 kt of deep-layer shear will favor
organized multicell and/or supercell structures capable of large
hail during the afternoon and evening hours.

A separate large-hail threat is expected to develop Wednesday night
into Thursday morning over the mid MO Valley within a zone of strong
warm advection and moisture flux occurring within the terminus of a
50+ kt low-level jet.

...Lower Great Lakes to Mid-Atlantic Coast...

Forcing for ascent associated with a weak mid-level disturbance
moving through the region is expected to foster widely scattered
thunderstorm development during the afternoon amidst a moist and
moderately unstable air mass. Model soundings indicate some
enhancement of the mid-level wind field, with deep-layer shear
increasing to around 30 kt in some areas. As such, a few severe
storms appear possible with an associated risk for damaging wind
gusts and large hail.

..Mead.. 06/09/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 120558
SWODY2
SPC AC 120557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
KANSAS INTO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
One or two evolving thunderstorm clusters appear possible across
parts of the central Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley vicinity
Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, accompanied by potential
for strong, damaging wind gusts. Large to very large hail may also
occur early in storm development from Kansas into Iowa.

...Mid-MS Valley into KS/OK...

Generally low-amplitude mid/upper flow will extend across the
central/southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley area initially Saturday
morning as the region is sandwiched between an upper trough over the
Upper Midwest and the northern periphery of upper ridging across the
Southeast. As the Upper Midwest trough modestly deepens and pivots
east, some strengthening of mid and upper westerly flow is forecast.
At the surface, southerly low-level flow will transport rich
boundary layer moisture northward across OK/KS into the Mid-MS
Valley ahead of northeast to southwest oriented cold front. Steep
midlevel lapse rates atop this moist airmass will support a corridor
of moderate to strong instability (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) across KS,
MO into southern IA and perhaps IL.

Some uncertainty remains regarding possible ongoing convection
across parts of northeast OK/southeast KS early Saturday morning in
the form of a decaying MCS from the Day 1/Friday period. It is
possible an MCV associated with this feature could move across MO
during the day and pose some severe risk toward the MS River by
afternoon. However, confidence in this scenario is low given low
predictability of mesoscale feature at this time scale.

Confidence is somewhat higher that convection will develop during
the afternoon in the vicinity of the surface front from eastern KS
into IA. Initial supercells appear possible. Low-level shear will be
modest, but given rich boundary layer moisture and strong
instability, a couple of tornadoes are possible. More likely, a
large to very large hail risk will be possible with initial
supercells given steep midlevel lapse rates, strong instability and elongated/straight forecast hodographs. As the surface front
develops southeast during the late afternoon into the evening, one
or more bowing MCSs are expected to develop, posing a risk for
scattered severe/damaging winds (isolated gusts to 70-80 mph will be
possible). This activity should continued southeast across the Lower
MO Valley toward the Ozarks vicinity through evening/overnight. The
northward extent of greater severe potential is uncertain, and this
portions of the outlook may need further refinement in subsequent outlooks.

...Lake Michigan Vicinity...

Isolated thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and early
evening along the advancing cold front. Cool temperatures aloft will
support steep midlevel lapse rates atop low 60s F boundary layer
moisture. This will foster MLCAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg.
Isolated hail and gusty winds will be possible with these storms.

...Southern Plains vicinity...

A surface dryline will extend from southwest KS into eastern NM on
Saturday. Forecast guidance depicts a shortwave impulse ejecting
across the southern Rockies ahead of a western U.S. upper trough. As
this occurs, isolated to scattered storms will develop near the
surface boundary. This activity will likely be higher-based given
deep mixing and strong heating into the 90s. Isolated strong wind
gusts will be the main hazard with this activity, though a few
instances of hail also are possible.

..Leitman.. 06/12/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)