ACUS02 KWNS 190549
SWODY2
SPC AC 190548

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorm activity across the Mid-Atlantic region
Wednesday may pose a risk for severe wind and hail. Large hail will
be possible with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms
developing over the southern High Plains into southwest Texas.

...Synopsis...
A trough will continue to lift northward into Canada D2/Wednesday,
with a cold front extending from the Northeast southward across the
southern Ohio Valley into the lower Mississippi Valley and westward
into southwestern Texas and eastern New Mexico. Scattered strong to
severe storms are expected near the front in the mid Atlantic and
near the high terrain of western Texas.

...Mid-Atlantic...

Scattered showers and storms are expected along the cold front
Wednesday afternoon across portions of the Mid-Atlantic. The
downstream air mass will include a narrow plume of weak to moderate instability. Though deep layer shear and mid-level lapse rates will
be marginal, steep low level lapse rates will support a few
instances of strong to severe winds.

...Southwest Texas and eastern New Mexico...

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
near the high terrain within the upslope flow regime across western
Texas and eastern New Mexico Wednesday afternoon. Forecast soundings
depict sufficient deep layer shear to support supercells. Moderate
to strong instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates will
support potential for large hail and a few occurrences of severe winds.

..Thornton.. 05/19/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 200554
SWODY2
SPC AC 200552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND THE FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the central and
southern High Plains Thursday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave will translate eastward across the central
Rockies on D2/Thursday. At the surface, a cold front will move
through the northern High Plains while a secondary stationary front
remains in place from the Carolinas through the Tennessee Valley
into Ozark Plateau. A few strong to severe storms capable of large
hail and damaging wind will be possible near the front range in
Colorado.

...Central and Southern High Plains...
Upslope flow into eastern Colorado will combine with modest
upper-level forcing for ascent to allow for isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms near the high terrain. Steep lapse rates,
MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg, and deep layer shear around 30-35 kts from
south of I-70 will allow for a few better organized cells capable of
large hail and damaging wind. This threat will decrease with eastern
extent into KS/OK where strengthening MLCIN will temper the severe
threat downstream.

Additional areas of scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible
across southern Oklahoma into northern/central Texas and across far
western Texas in the afternoon. Generally weak deep layer shear
should limit the severe risk. A few instances of gusty winds and
small hail will be possible.

...Elsewhere...
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected across the northern
Rockies into the northern Plains near the upper-low. Weak moisture
and limited instability will likely keep storms sub-severe. Widely
scattered thunderstorms will also be likely south of the stationary
front from the Carolinas into the Tennessee and Mississippi Valleys.
While marginal instability will be in place, weak deep layer shear
profiles will lead to more disorganized storms and limit the overall
severe threat.

..Thornton.. 05/20/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 220559
SWODY2
SPC AC 220558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to potentially severe storms appear possible from
the Raton Mesa vicinity into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles and
southward near the middle Texas Coast. Additional severe
thunderstorms will be possible in portions of central Georgia.

...Synopsis...
A weak impulse will rotate across the central Plains on D2/Saturday
as a surface low moves northward across the Ohio Valley. A trailing
cold front will extend from the surface low back into the southern
Plains. Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible
from the central/southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley
and across the Southeast. A few stronger storms may be possible
across portions of the southern Plains and the southeastern US.

...TX/OK Panhandles...

Weak forcing for ascent and easterly upslope flow across the Caprock
and into the higher terrain in eastern New Mexico will produce
scattered thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon. These are
progged to move eastward downstream across the Panhandles into
portions of western Oklahoma. Forecast soundings suggest a plume of
steep to low mid-level lapse rates will still reside across the
OK/TX Panhandles with mid 50s to 60s dew points and moderate
instability. Shear profiles will be marginal, with deep layer shear
around 25-30 kts. Nonetheless, a few more organized storms may
produce strong to severe wind and instances of severe hail.

...Middle Texas Coast...

Thunderstorm activity is expected to form near the Edwards Plateau
on Saturday afternoon and move south and east towards the middle
Texas coast. Ahead of this, moderate to strong afternoon instability
and steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be in place across
portions of southern Texas. Some enhancement of
deep-layer shear is forecast across south TX, which will may provide opportunity for cold pool organization and damaging wind.

...Central/Southern Georgia...

A weak shortwave will move across Georgia Saturday afternoon as
widely scattered thunderstorm development occurs. Most guidance
suggests deep layer shear around 30-40 kts which may allow for a few
more organized cells. These may produce a few instances of strong to
severe wind.

..Thornton.. 05/22/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 230555
SWODY2
SPC AC 230553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible from the southern/central Plains to the southeastern US into the lower Ohio
Valley. A few stronger storms may be possible from central Nebraska
into southwest Minnesota.

...Synopsis...
Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are likely south of a
stationary front extending from the southern Plains into the lower
Ohio Valley. A few additional thunderstorms will be possible across
the southern High Plains within the easterly upslope regime. A weak
shortwave trough will move across the central/northern Plains into
the Upper Midwest on D2/Sunday, which may be a focus of thunderstorm development across portions of Nebraska into Minnesota. Large hail
and damaging wind will be the primary threat with these storms.

...Nebraska into Minnesota...

A plume of mid 50s to 60s dew points will advect northward into
portions of eastern Nebraska into southern Minnesota Sunday
afternoon amid increasing southerly flow across the central/northern
Plains. A weak shortwave will move eastward across this area with
thunderstorm development likely by the afternoon. Forecast soundings
suggest that deep layer shear will be sufficient to support
supercells, with around 40 kts in the 0-6 km layer. In addition to
the increase in moisture, steep low to mid-level lapse rates will
also overspread the area. This, in combination with strong deep
layer shear, will favor potential for large hail (isolated very
large hail up to 2" in diameter). Well mixed profiles may also
support a few instances of strong to severe wind.

..Thornton.. 05/23/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 260545
SWODY2
SPC AC 260544

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN MARYLAND...AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong storms are expected primarily over parts of
Virginia and Maryland Wednesday afternoon and early evening. A few
damaging gusts will be possible.

...Synopsis...
Height falls will occur over the northeastern states on Wednesday as
a positive-tilt upper trough moves across the Great Lakes and toward
the Mid Atlantic. This will flatten the upper ridge over the
Southeast, with increasing westerlies aloft. At the surface, a
trough will develop from southern New England into eastern VA, with
strong daytime heating. Dewpoints in the upper 60s F will be common,
aiding instability.

Elsewhere, a deep upper low will be nearly stationary from central
CA into western NV, with a surface trough developing during the
afternoon from UT into southern ID and eastern OR. Strong heating
within this trough may yield scattered thunderstorms moving
northwestward across parts of ID into OR, with locally gusty winds.

Farther north, instability may develop over WI and vicinity, near a southwestward-moving cold front and on the back side of the upper
trough. Isolated strong cells cannot be ruled out with gusty winds.

...Mid Atlantic Region...

Scattered thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of IN/OH/PA
within a warm advection zone with westerly 850 mb winds. This
activity will generally shift east/southeast during the day, as the
air mass ahead of it destabilizes. Possible outflow from this
activity, as well as surface convergence within the heating air mass
should yield additional cells/clusters during the afternoon, moving east/southeast across VA, MD, and northern NC. Though lapse rates
aloft will not be particularly steep, high PWAT along with peak
heating and increasing winds aloft will support storm longevity,
with possible forward-propagating clusters. Increasing deep-layer
shear may also support cellular storm mode. A few strong to severe
wind gusts appear most likely during the late afternoon and early evening.

..Jewell.. 05/26/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 270526
SWODY2
SPC AC 270525

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
OREGON INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON...NORTHERN IDAHO AND NORTHWEST MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday over western
Montana, northern Idaho, and into central Oregon/Washington. A few
damaging gusts or marginal hail will be possible.

...Synopsis & Discussion...
An upper low will move slowly from CA into NV on Thursday, with a
leading midlevel speed max forecast to move from UT northward across
ID, OR and WA. Cooling aloft will occur along with 40-50 kt 500 mb
winds enhancing deep-layer shear. A surface trough will also deepen
during the afternoon roughly from UT into eastern WA, with strong
heating and steepening lapse rates aiding destabilization.

Scattered storms are forecast to develop by early afternoon over
central OR, with additional activity extending northeastward across
northern ID, eastern WA and northwest MT. Though total CAPE values
are questionably high by some models, sufficient instability will
exist, along with favorable large-scale ascent and steep lapse
rates. This will favor northwestward-moving cells and perhaps a few
bows, with at least isolated severe gusts or marginal hail expected.

Elsewhere, scattered storms are likely during the afternoon and
evening from KS/OK into the Southeast. Winds aloft and shear will be
weak across this entire region, and severe storms are largely not
expected. Still, sporadic strong gusts cannot be ruled out.

..Jewell.. 05/27/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 280552
SWODY2
SPC AC 280551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MONTANA...AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A few storms may produce marginal hail or strong gusts from eastern
New Mexico and western Texas across Oklahoma and toward northern
Louisiana on Friday. A few strong to severe storms may also occur
across western Montana with gusty winds and marginal hail. Isolated
damaging wind gusts are also possible across portions of the central
High Plains.

...MT...

An upper low will weaken as it moves from the Great Basin to the
central Rockies, with cool temperatures aloft persisting over much
of the region. A surface trough will deepen over central MT with a
cold front moving across ID and into western MT. Daytime heating and
steepening lapse rates may aid wind gust potential as storms develop
late in the day from western into central MT. Relatively strong
upper-level winds will elongate hodographs, and may support cells
producing marginal hail.

...Central High Plains...

Low-level moisture will spread westward into northern CO and eastern
WY as a low pressure trough develops from MT into eastern CO during
the afternoon. Steep lapse rates and 50s F dewpoints will result in
perhaps 1000 J/kg MUCAPE supporting storms forming from southeast WY
into the Front Range. These storms may produce strong to locally
severe outflow winds.

...Southern Plains...

An upper-level jet of 50-70 kt will move into southern NM and
western TX, though midlevel winds will be at or below 30 kt. Strong
heating will occur over the region while southeast surface winds
maintain moisture influx. Storms should form during the afternoon
from eastern NM and spread across western TX and perhaps into
southwest KS. Cool midlevel temperatures may support marginal hail,
though gusty outflow winds will be the most common threat.
Additionally, a few storms may occur farther east from OK into
northeast TX, AR and LA where dewpoints and instability will be
greater. Any storms that can form within the uncapped air mass would
likely move southeastward with isolated strong gust potential.

..Jewell.. 05/28/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)