ACUS01 KWNS 191300
SWODY1
SPC AC 191258

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MID-SOUTH...OHIO
VALLEY...AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible today from the
southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South, Ohio
Valley, and lower Great Lakes. Damaging winds and hail will be the
primary threats. A greater threat for large to very large hail
should exist across parts of west-central Texas.

...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley...

Numerous thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across
central/eastern OK into northwest AR and southern MO. Most of this
activity is occurring along and north of a southward-moving cold
front, and should therefore pose a limited severe risk in the short
term. Eventual regeneration along the cold front and/or
strengthening of ongoing activity should occur later today across TX
into the lower MS Valley/Mid-South. Mid-level flow is forecast to
remain fairly modest, and deep-layer shear for most areas will tend
to be marginal. Still, filtered daytime heating of a moist low-level
airmass will support moderate to strong instability along/ahead of
the front by early afternoon. Scattered severe/damaging winds should
be the main threat with loosely organized clusters and bowing line
segments. This wind threat may continue to the TX/LA Coast this evening/overnight. Some potential for supercells should also exist
across parts of west-central TX and vicinity, where steeper
mid-level lapse rates and greater instability is forecast to be in
place. Large hail appears possible with any supercells that can be
sustained, and isolated 2+ inch diameter hail may occur. With time
this evening, this convection may also grow upscale into a bowing
cluster and pose a greater severe wind risk.

...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast...

Modestly enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow will be present today
over the OH Valley and lower Great Lakes regions, as a positively
tilted mid/upper-level trough moves from the Upper Midwest into
eastern Canada. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop
along/ahead of a surface cold front this afternoon as the
pre-frontal airmass gradually destabilizes. Stronger instability
should be present this afternoon across the OH Valley, but greater
deep-layer shear may tend to remain mostly displaced farther north.
Even so, some thunderstorm organization should occur, with
multicells and bowing line segments possible. Scattered
severe/damaging winds should be the main threat, although isolated
hail could occur with the strongest cores. This convection should
spread into the lower Great Lakes by mid to late evening, before
eventually weakening across the Northeast late tonight. A separate
area of convection may develop this afternoon across parts of New
England, and also pose a threat for mainly occasional damaging winds.

..Gleason/Marsh.. 05/19/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 201232
SWODY1
SPC AC 201230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...AND PARTS OF WEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe/damaging winds and isolated hail will be possible
with thunderstorms from the central Appalachians into the
Mid-Atlantic and southern New England this afternoon and evening.
Severe thunderstorms with large hail and isolated severe gusts may
also occur today across parts of west/south-central Texas.

...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England...

On the southern fringe of upper troughing over eastern Canada and
the Great Lakes, a weak/convectively augmented mid-level shortwave
trough will progress northeastward across the OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, eventually reaching the Mid-Atlantic
tonight. Robust daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level
airmass (surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 60s) ahead of
a surface cold front will aid in the development of moderate
instability by early afternoon. Ongoing convection across OH/KY this
morning may eventually strengthen as it encounters this
destabilizing airmass, and additional thunderstorms are expected to
develop along/near the cold front by mid afternoon from the central Appalachians into portions of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.

Stronger flow aloft will tend to lag/remain north of the cold front,
but modest enhancement to the west-southwesterly mid-level flow
along/near the front should support around 20-30 kt of deep-layer
shear. This will be sufficient for some updraft organization with
mainly multicells expected, although marginal supercell structures
may occur. Low-level lapse rates are expected to become quite steep
through the day, evidenced by a general lack of clouds on recent
visible satellite imagery from central/eastern WV into the
Mid-Atlantic. This will likely aid efficient downward momentum
transfer in convective downdrafts, with scattered severe/damaging
winds possible as multiple clusters spread east-northeastward
through the afternoon/evening. Isolated hail may also occur with the
stronger cores. A Slight Risk for severe/damaging winds has been
introduced from parts of WV to southern New England given increased
confidence in multiple clusters traversing a narrow zone along/ahead
of the front.

...Eastern New Mexico into West/South-Central Texas...

A squall line has generally moved offshore the lower/middle TX Coast
this morning. In its wake, a post-frontal low-level upslope flow
regime will persist today across west TX into eastern NM. Embedded
within large-scale upper troughing over the Great Basin/Southwest, a low-amplitude shortwave trough over northern Mexico this morning
will move northeastward across the southern High Plains by this
afternoon. A relatively early start to convective development
appears probable across the higher terrain of far west TX, possibly
as early as 17-19Z. With a combination of moderate instability and
40-50 kt of deep-layer shear forecast, supercells with mainly a
large hail threat should be the primary mode initially. Additional
robust thunderstorms may form later in the afternoon/early evening
across a broader portion of the southern High Plains, and also pose
a threat for large hail and isolated severe winds. Some potential
for clustering this evening remains apparent into south-central TX,
and supercells from north-central Mexico could also move into this
region this evening/overnight.

..Gleason/Marsh.. 05/20/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 211251
SWODY1
SPC AC 211250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and isolated severe
gusts should occur across parts of the central/southern High Plains
this afternoon and evening. A tornado or two may also occur.

...Central/Southern High Plains into South Texas...

Within large-scale upper troughing over the northern Rockies/Great
Basin, an embedded mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet
will translate southeastward across the central Rockies and adjacent
High Plains this afternoon and evening. Forcing for ascent preceding
this feature will encourage initial isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development across the higher terrain of central CO by
mid afternoon. A weak southern-stream perturbation should also
foster scattered convection farther south across the southern High
Plains as well.

The airmass across the central/southern High Plains should gradually destabilize today, as modest moisture in a persistent low-level
upslope flow regime continues streaming northwestward across these
regions beneath steepened mid-level lapse rates. Weak to moderate
instability is forecast to be in place by mid afternoon, with
sufficient deep-layer shear for a mix of multicells and supercells.
Initial development should pose a threat for large hail, before
eventual clustering this evening potentially results in a greater
threat for severe winds. The primary change with this update was to
expand the Marginal Risk across parts of west into south TX, where
any convection which develops eastward may pose an isolated
hail/wind threat this afternoon through tonight.

...Southern Virginia into North Carolina...

Daytime heating south of a cold front should help steepen low-level
lapse rates across parts of southern VA into NC by this afternoon.
While both mid-level flow and lapse rates are expected to remain
fairly modest across this area, an isolated threat for damaging
winds may exist with loosely organized clusters that can develop
along the higher terrain and/or sagging cold front this afternoon.

...Coastal Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley...

Another expansive MCS has moved offshore from the lower TX Coast
this morning. Generally weak offshore surface flow continues across
the middle/upper TX Coast into southern LA. Eventually, a more
southerly component to the low-level winds may encourage greater
low-level moisture to advance inland later today across parts of the
lower MS Valley. While a couple of stronger thunderstorms with gusty
winds appear possible, modest mid-level flow and poor lapse rates
aloft should tend to limit the overall severe threat.

..Gleason/Marsh.. 05/21/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 221250
SWODY1
SPC AC 221249

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large to very large hail and severe gusts are
possible late this afternoon into the evening in parts of the
southern High Plains.

...Southern High Plains...

Modest cyclonic mid-level flow will extend from the Interior West
through the base of the trough over the south-central U.S.
Water-vapor imagery shows a weak disturbance migrating east across
the Permian Basin this morning. A seasonably moist airmass
maintained via southeasterly low-level flow will heat and become
moderately to strongly unstable by mid afternoon.

Model forecast soundings show relatively cool 500-mb temperatures
(near -14 deg C) with steep low- to mid-level lapse rates later this
afternoon. Strong heating will locally erode appreciable remaining
convective inhibition and widely scattered thunderstorms will likely
develop by late afternoon. Although westerly flow will likely
remain modest (20 kt from 600 to 200 mb), strongly veering flow will
result in 25-30 kt effective shear, supporting supercells initially.
Large to very large hail will be possible with the more intense
updrafts. Increasing storm coverage during the evening will tend to
promote some upscale growth into a linear cluster with severe gusts
becoming more prevalent. The risk for severe gusts (60-80 mph) may
focus during the 00-03 UTC period before a gradual waning in
coverage/intensity by late evening.

...Central Gulf Coast States/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys...

Water-vapor imagery shows a disturbance moving northeastward across
the ArkLaMiss this morning and moving towards western portions of
TN/KY and the lower OH Valley. Surface analysis indicates a moist
airmass featuring dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s over TN to
the lower 70s over the central Gulf Coast. Despite widespread cloud
cover, some thinning of the cloud shield is expected as temperatures
slowly warm through the early afternoon. Models generally show weak
buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and skinny CAPE profiles and
tempered lapse rates (reference the Nashville and Birmingham 12 UTC
raobs). However, models show some enhancement/strengthening of
925-500 mb flow moving northeastward across MS/AL into TN through
the mid-late afternoon. As a result, some enlargement of hodographs
will likely occur during the diurnal heating cycle and a few weak
supercell structures will probably develop. Yet, the ongoing
thunderstorm band over eastern MS may be ill timed as it moves
northeastward across western/northern AL through midday.
Nonetheless, an isolated risk for a tornado seems possible over much
of this general region. A risk for isolated damaging gusts may also
accompany some of the stronger thunderstorms before this activity
wanes by the early evening.

...Mid Missouri Valley...

An upper-level trough and an associated mid-level jet streak will
move northeastward today across the north-central U.S. At the
surface, an axis of low-level moisture will be in place from eastern
Kansas northward into eastern Nebraska. Ahead of the trough,
scattered thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon along and near
the moist axis. Surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will
contribute to weak instability with MLCAPE likely peaking in the 500
to 1000 J/kg range across eastern Nebraska. RAP forecast soundings
near Omaha suggest that 0-6 km shear will reach 35 knots as the
trough approaches this afternoon, which would support the
development of low-topped supercells capable of isolated severe wind
gusts and hail. The severe threat is expected to persist into the
early evening.

..Smith/Weinman.. 05/22/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 261244
SWODY1
SPC AC 261243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
southwest into south-central Texas. Large hail, severe wind gusts,
and a couple tornadoes are possible through this evening.

...Southwest into South-Central Texas...

Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a weak mid-level trough over
southern NM and Far West TX. This upper feature will slowly migrate
east into the Permian Basin and Concho Valley later this
afternoon/evening. Early morning showers/thunderstorms and their
associated outflow and relatively cool air have overspread the
Permian Basin. To the southeast of the rain-cooled airmass, the 12
UTC Del Rio, TX raob sampled moderately steep 700-500 mb lapse rates
(7.3 deg C/km) and 2200 J/kg MUCAPE. A weak area of low pressure
near the Big Bend will maintain a moist, easterly low-level fetch
into the Edwards Plateau. Heating via cloud breaks and surface
dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F will contribute to
1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon.

Strong veering of the low-level wind profile with 20-25 kt westerly
500-mb flow will support organized storms, including supercells with
the stronger updrafts. Some tornado threat may evolve with one or
two more intense supercells but this risk will largely be dependent
on mesoscale factors. Clusters of storms are eventually expected
with the severe risk continuing into the evening with the stronger
storms capable of wind/hail.

...Kentucky...

A seasonably moisture-rich airmass is located along and south of a
residual frontal zone draped from the confluence of the OH-MS Rivers east-northeast across the OH Valley. Despite considerable cloud
cover, some heating will result in weak instability. Widely
scattered to scattered thunderstorms coincident with peak heating
are forecast. Modest southwesterly mid-level flow (20-30 kt) may
act to aid in some organization of cells. An isolated risk for
damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are possible with this activity.

...Upper Midwest...

A weak MCV was noted over the Mid MO Valley this morning embedded
within a weak westerly mid-level flow regime to the north of a
flattened mid-level anticyclone. In the low levels, a
quasi-stationary boundary will be draped generally west to east
across the region. South of this boundary, surface dewpoints in the
60s F will contribute to pockets of moderate instability by
afternoon. Model guidance indicates scattered storm coverage later
this afternoon in the wake of morning showers/storms over parts of
this region. Isolated wind/hail will be the primary hazards with
the stronger storms before this activity weakens by early evening.

...Northern Rockies...

A belt of south-southeasterly 20-30 kt mid-level flow will reside in
between a mid-level cyclone over northern CA and an anticyclone over
the Midwest. A lee trough over the northern High Plains will focus thunderstorm development later today as the boundary layer
destabilizes. Low-level lapse rates will be very steep, which will
contribute to a potential for severe wind gusts. Hail will also be
possible, mainly over western Montana where instability is forecast
to be the strongest.

..Smith/Weinman.. 05/26/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 271246
SWODY1
SPC AC 271245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon into the early evening. Strong
to severe gusts (50-65 mph) capable of wind damage will be the
primary hazard with the stronger thunderstorms.

...Mid-Atlantic/Ohio Valley...

An upper-level trough over the Great Lakes will move southeast
towards the upper OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic states during the period.
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a lead disturbance over
southern OH moving east across the central Appalachians. In the low
levels, an analyzed frontal zone has been modulated by ongoing showers/thunderstorms and it will move southeast today. A moist
airmass ahead of the front, featuring dewpoints in the upper 60s to
lower 70s F, will gradually destabilize through early afternoon. East-southeastward moving clusters are forecast to evolve by later
this afternoon. Scattered strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph)
capable of wind damage will be the primary risk with the stronger thunderstorms, although marginally severe hail may accompany the
stronger cores this afternoon.

...Southern ID into eastern OR...

A belt of strong easterly mid-level flow will remain over southwest
ID into southeast OR to the north of a stationary, deep-layer
cyclone over the Sierra Nevada. Heating of an adequately moist
boundary layer will steepen low-level lapse rates by early
afternoon. Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast
to develop this afternoon. Forecast hodographs show 20-45 kt
700-500 mb flow (strongest over southeast OR) and mean storm motions
35-45 kt. These flow fields coupled with evaporatively cooled
downdrafts will likely result in a mix of quickly moving cells and smaller-scale linear clusters. This activity will potentially be
capable of severe gusts (60-75 mph) before diminishing by mid-late evening.

...Western Great Lakes...

Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across the western
Great Lakes today, as a shortwave trough moves southeastward across
the region. At the surface, a pocket of maximized low-level
moisture will be located over Wisconsin, where MLCAPE is expected to
peak in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. An isolated risk for large
hail/damaging gusts are possible with the stronger thunderstorms.

...Southern Texas Panhandle/West Texas/Far Western Oklahoma...

Somewhat displaced from an expansive overnight MCS along the TX
coast, an airmass featuring upper 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints will
destabilize beneath a weak mid- to upper-level trough. Widely
scattered to scattered storms are forecast to develop by late
afternoon and aggregate into small clusters this evening. Isolated
large hail/severe gusts are the primary severe hazards.

..Smith/Weinman.. 05/27/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 281254
SWODY1
SPC AC 281253

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN IDAHO
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over western Idaho and
east of the Cascades in Washington and Oregon. Severe gusts (60-85
mph), large hail, and perhaps a tornado are the forecast hazards
this afternoon through the late evening.

...Columbia Basin vicinity into ID/northern NV...

A mid- to upper-level low over the Sierra Nevada will move little
during the period. Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates a
disturbance over NV will move north and northwestward through
eastern NV into eastern OR by early evening. In the low levels, an
area of low pressure is forecast to develop by late afternoon and
migrate from the ID/OR border into the Columbia Basin.

A plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates arc around the northern
periphery of the western U.S. low and extend from the Snake Valley
westward into OR/WA. As heating of a seasonably moist airmass
occurs, initial thunderstorm activity will gradually shift from
south to north from northern NV/southern ID and southern OR. Model
forecast soundings show steep low to mid tropospheric lapse rates
favorable for evaporative cooling and the development of strong to
severe downdrafts. Slightly greater buoyancy is shown in model
guidance farther north in northern OR into western ID (1500 J/kg
MLCAPE). As storms move into this region during the late afternoon
to evening timeframe, it is possible a more extensive threat for
severe gusts develops. Regardless, severe outflow both with the
stronger cores and linearly oriented clusters appear to be the main
hazard. Large hail may accompany the stronger cells. A continued
threat for scattered severe gusts may occur into the late evening as
this activity shifts northward into interior portions of WA.

...East-central Colorado...

A mid-level trough will move northward across the central Plains
today. At the surface, upslope east-southeasterly flow will be in
place across eastern Colorado. Along the Front Range, the Denver
cyclone is expected to develop by afternoon. Topographic lift and
increasing low-level convergence will result in scattered
thunderstorm development from the Palmer Divide northward into
north-central Colorado. Forecast soundings along this corridor by
late afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 20 to 30 knot range with
700-500 mb lapse rates around 8 C/km. This should support a hail
threat with the stronger cells.

..Smith/Weinman.. 05/28/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 291242
SWODY1
SPC AC 291241

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEST TEXAS
INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms capable of sporadic large hail and
scattered severe winds are expected this afternoon and evening
across portions of western Texas. More isolated severe thunderstorms
are likely across parts of the central High Plains, southern Utah,
and the northern Rockies.

...Southern Plains and central High Plains...

Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level low migrating eastward across
the Mojave Desert towards the southern Great Basin. A 90-kt 250-mb sub-tropical jet over Baja and Sonora Mexico will progress eastward
into the southern High Plains by this afternoon. The nose of this
speed max will overspread a moist sector east of a dryline where
severe thunderstorm development is forecast later this
afternoon/evening. Farther north, a modestly deepening lee trough
will focus storm initiation over the central High Plains.

Despite some mid and high-level clouds, model guidance shows strong
heating this afternoon and erosion of appreciable convective
inhibition by mid afternoon. A mid-level disturbance implied in
satellite imagery this morning over central NM will move northeast
into western KS and the TX Panhandle by early evening. Scattered
thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the dryline/lee trough.
Forecast hodographs show some elongation across west TX due to the
nose the upper speed max. Have included 15-percent hail
probabilities where supercell development appears greatest [due in
part to more favorable hodographs and within the northern rim of
richer moisture sampled by the 12 UTC Del Rio, TX raob (17.3 g/kg
mean mixing ratio)]. Large hail (1.5 to 2.5 inches in diameter)
will be possible with the supercells. Severe gusts are forecast to
become more prevalent during the evening as mergers and outflow
consolidate into a few linear clusters. Severe gusts of 60-80 mph
are possible as this activity shifts eastward into the Low Rolling
Plains and southwest OK during the evening.

Through the late evening, isentropic ascent near the terminus of the
nocturnal jet may support elevated, loosely organized convection
across portions of northwest OK and western KS. Isolated hail/wind
may accompany the stronger storms over the central High Plains into
central OK where storm coverage will probably remain isolated.

...Northern Rockies/Montana...

Diurnally-driven orographic ascent within the terrain of northern ID
and southwest MT will likely support isolated thunderstorm
development by late afternoon given weak capping and northward
advection of steep mid-level lapse rates. Residual low-level
moisture across north-central MT (dewpoints in the upper 40s to low
50s) coupled with 30-35 knot southerly mid-level flow will likely
promote intensification and some degree of organization (possibly
into transient supercells and/or organized bands) through the early
evening hours. Sporadic large hail and severe gusts appear possible
with the most intense convection as it spreads north towards the
Canadian border.

...Southern Utah...

A few high-based storms developing within a deeply mixed boundary
layer (inverted-V profile) may yield an isolated risk for severe
gusts (60-70 mph).

..Smith/Kerr.. 05/29/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 300551
SWODY1
SPC AC 300549

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on
this afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains
into central Kansas and north-central Oklahoma. Isolated severe
gusts and hail will also be possible in the northern High Plains,
and across parts of western Texas.

...Synopsis...
Latest GOES imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level low over southern
UT with a modest (25-35 knot) subtropical jet emanating from
northern Mexico into the southern Plains. Several shortwave
vorticity maximum are noted along the MS River Valley and across the
Southeast within a broad upper-level deformation zone. Over the next
12-24 hours, the low over southern UT will drift northeast, likely overspreading the central High Plains by late afternoon/early
evening. As this occurs, more focused surface pressure falls and lee
cyclone development will become apparent across eastern WY/CO and
into portions of western KS/OK and the TX Panhandle.

00 UTC RAOBs across the central to southern Rockies sampled very
steep (8-9 C/km) lapse rates, which should advect eastward in the
wake of ongoing convection through this afternoon given the
southwesterly mid-level flow regime. Additionally, late-evening
surface observations across the central CONUS reveal an expansive
reservoir of rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the upper 60s
to mid 70s spanning from central OK into the Southeast. This
moisture will advect west/northwest through the morning and
afternoon hours in response to the surface pressure
falls/cyclogenesis over the central High Plains.

The combination of destabilizing thermal profiles aloft and
increasing low-level moisture content will promote a broad swath of
moderate to very high buoyancy from the central High Plains
southward into the southern Plains. Thunderstorm development within
this unstable air mass appears likely as ascent increases through
the day along the surface trough/sharpening dryline.

...Central High Plains...

35-45 knot southerly mid-level flow across the central High Plains
will yield elongated hodographs with deep-layer shear vectors
oriented off the dryline/surface trough. This will result in
high-based supercell development initially across northeast
CO/western NE into western SD with an attendant threat for large
hail and strong outflow winds. With time, upscale growth is
anticipated as convection spreads north/northeast across NE and SD
with an increasing threat for severe winds.

...Central/Southern Plains...

Most guidance depicts a sharpening dryline across western/central
KS, western OK, and into western TX through the afternoon hours.
More focused forcing for ascent across central KS to northern OK
ahead of a subtle low-amplitude upper wave will likely favor
scattered thunderstorm coverage with more isolated thunderstorms
likely with southward extent into western TX. Although ample
buoyancy will be in place (MLCAPE values between 3500-4500 J/kg),
the primary limiting factor across the central/southern Plains will
be modest deep-layer wind shear. Consensus among forecast guidance
suggests effective bulk shear values on the order of 25-35 knots are
likely, which will promote a combination of supercells and
multicells. However, the steep lapse-rate environment coupled with
sufficient deep-layer wind shear will support the potential for
large hail along with severe wind gusts.

A focused corridor for a tornado threat may emerge across northern
OK to central KS where southeasterly low-level flow should support
effective SRH on the order of 150-200 m2/s2. However, the tornado
threat will likely be highly conditional on achieving a sustained
supercell with balanced inflow/outflow. Given the increased
convective signal across northern OK/KS, 15% hail/wind
probabilities, as well as 2% tornado probabilities, have been introduced.

...Southwest Missouri into central Arkansas...

A zone of isentropic ascent near 850 mb will become established
across the Ozark Plateau by late afternoon. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are likely within this corridor given MUCAPE values
upwards of 3000 J/kg, and sufficient deep-layer wind shear should be
in place for a few organized cells capable of large hail and perhaps strong/severe downburst winds.

..Moore/Marsh.. 05/30/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 311222
SWODY1
SPC AC 311220

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0720 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Valid 311300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING FROM
EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms are possible this evening from eastern Kansas
into western Missouri.

...KS/MO...

Moderately strong southwesterly flow aloft extends from the Four
Corners region into the Midwest today. Water vapor imagery suggests
several weak shortwave troughs embedded in the flow to aid in
large-scale ascent and the potential for thunderstorm development
later today. Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning over eastern
KS/western MO. These storms will reinforce a surface boundary
across southeast KS/southwest MO. The boundary will lift northward
this afternoon with the potential for isolated thunderstorms along
and south of it. Very warm and humid conditions will prevail across
southeast KS/southern MO with MLCAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg, along
with steep low and mid-level lapse rates.

While these early storms will pose an isolated severe threat, more
organized convection is forecast to form by early evening over
eastern KS and track along the boundary into MO. Forecast soundings
suggest sufficient vertical shear to support supercells and bowing
structures capable of large hail and damaging winds, or even a
tornado. A small area of SLGT risk has been added to address this scenario.

...Elsewhere...

Widely scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and
hail will be possible this afternoon and early evening over parts of
AR, and southwest TX. Isolated occurrences of large hail are also
possible today from parts of the Dakotas into NE/IA.

..Hart/Kerr.. 05/31/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 011213
SWODY1
SPC AC 011211

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0711 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND PARTS OF THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected
Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains.
Scattered to numerous strong to severe wind gusts will also be
possible from the Ozarks southeastward into parts of the Southeast.

...Southeast States...

An occasionally severe MCS is ongoing this morning south of STL.
This activity may persist through much of the day, tracking
southeastward along the low-level moisture/instability gradient into
western KY/middle TN and eventually north GA. Moderate CAPE values,
30+ knots of mid-level steering flow, and mesoscale organization of
the MCS will pose a risk of strong/damaging winds along this corridor.

Along the western flank of this MCS, a hot/humid air mass will
develop from AR into parts of TN/MS/AL with temperatures in the 90s
and dewpoints in the 70s. This will yield afternoon MLCAPE values
approaching 4000 J/kg. The consensus of model guidance suggests
scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon, with outflows
congealing and spreading south/southwestward though a steep
lapse-rate environment. The result will be the potential for rather
widespread strong/severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and
some hail. These storms may spread as far south as central MS/AL
during the evening before weakening.

...High Plains...

Easterly low-level winds are present this morning over much of
eastern CO/western KS. This will maintain an influx of moisture and
aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms over the foothills
of central CO by mid-afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear will
pose a risk of supercells capable of large/very large hail. As the
storms move/develop eastward into western KS this evening, supercell
structures may persist, but upscale growth into bowing clusters is
also expected. This will increase the risk of severe wind gusts as
well. The easterly low-level jet will also strengthen considerably
this evening across the region, enhancing low-level shear and
helicity, but in a region with high LCLs and dewpoints only around 50F.

Widely scattered severe storms are also expected to develop over
southeast WY, spreading eastward into the NE panhandle and southwest
SD with a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts.

..Hart/Kerr.. 06/01/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 021151
SWODY1
SPC AC 021149

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts and potentially a
couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening in parts
of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and marginal hail will
also be possible in parts of the southern and central High Plains. A
few severe wind gusts may also occur from southern Georgia into
northern and eastern Florida.

...Northern Plains...

The upper low that has affected the western U.S. for the last
several days has lifted into Alberta, with broad 40-60 knot
southwesterly mid-level flow across much of the northern Plains. A
cold front currently extends from eastern WY into western ND, which
will provide the primary focus for thunderstorm development later
this afternoon. Forecast soundings across this area show strong
deep-layer shear, steep lapse rates, and MLCAPE values around 2500
J/kg. This suggests the potential for several supercells storms
capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two.

Numerous thunderstorms over western KS this morning have overturned
most of this air mass, and will likely suppress strong storms
through the evening. However, ample moisture has surged westward
into the foothills of CO where isolated strong storms may occur.

...Southeast TX...

An outflow boundary associated with convective clusters over OK has
surged southward into the Red River valley. A hot and humid air
mass over southeast TX will be supportive of re-development of
afternoon thunderstorms along this outflow boundary. Storms will
likely track southward through the early evening, posing a risk of
locally damaging wind gusts.

...Southwest TX/Southeast NM...

Southeasterly low-level winds are present this morning over much of
southwest TX and southeast NM, maintaining 50s dewpoints in the
region and encouraging thunderstorms later today over the terrain.
The storms that form will spread northeastward for a few hours,
posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts.

...FL/GA...

An upper trough will track southward across the eastern states
today. A moist and moderately unstable airmass will develop over
much of FL and southern GA, with isolated afternoon thunderstorm
development expected. The strongest cells may produce
gusty/damaging winds.

..Hart/Kerr.. 06/02/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 031153
SWODY1
SPC AC 031151

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts, and a few
tornadoes will be possible this afternoon and evening in parts of
the northern Plains into upper Mississippi Valley. More sporadic
occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible
across parts of the central High Plains and southwest Texas into
southern New Mexico.

...Northern Plains...

Morning water vapor loop shows an upper low over southern Alberta,
with several shortwave troughs embedded in the southwesterly flow
over MT/WY/ID. At the surface, the primary cold front will move
eastward into the central Dakotas and northwest NE by afternoon,
providing the focus for scattered thunderstorm development.

A broad cluster of weakening thunderstorms is occurring this morning
near the NE/SD border. This activity has resulted in an outflow
boundary that will lift northward into SD this afternoon. Dewpoints
in the upper 60s and MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg are expected in the
region along/north of the outflow boundary, with forecast soundings
showing favorable deep-layer shear for supercell storms. These
storms will persist through the evening, affecting eastern SD,
southeast ND, and western MN. Large hail is the primary risk early,
with a transition to more linear structures during the evening and
an attendant damaging wind risk. Recent model guidance suggests a
notable low-level jet in this region during the late
afternoon/evening, supportive of some risk of maintaining discrete
modes and increasing the risk of a few tornadoes.

...Elsewhere...

Farther south, widely scattered strong storms are expected later
today across the central High Plains, and southwest TX/southern NM.
Locally damaging wind gusts are the main risk.

..Hart/Kerr.. 06/03/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 041200
SWODY1
SPC AC 041158

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and
damaging winds are possible today from parts of the northern High
Plains across northern Nebraska and much of South Dakota. More
isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds appear
possible farther south across portions of the central Plains.

...MT/Dakotas/MN...

Fast zonal flow is present today over the northern U.S, with a
shortwave trough now over western MT approaching the northern High
Plains. Easterly low-level winds have transported 50s dewpoints
westward into southeast MT/northeast WY, where daytime heating and
increasing large-scale ascent will lead to scattered afternoon
thunderstorms. Coverage of storms is not expected to be very high,
but those cells that can develop will likely be supercells capable
of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms will spread into the
central Dakotas through the evening with a continued severe threat.

Farther east, a surface boundary is forecast to extend from
south-central SD into central MN. Strong heating in this corridor
will promote scattered thunderstorms after 20z. Forecast soundings
suggest an environment favorable for hail and damaging winds in the
strongest cells.

...KS/NE/IA...

A weak upper trough has emerged from the central/southern High
Plains overnight and is now moving across western KS. Radar loops
show an MCV near Hays KS that will track into southeast NE and
western IA later today. A combination of low-level convergence,
daytime heating, and the affects of the MCV will lead to scattered
afternoon thunderstorms from northeast KS into IA. CAPE values of
2000-3000 J/kg are expected, along with sufficient deep-layer shear
for multicell or perhaps supercell storm structures. The potential
exists for hail and damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells this
evening. An upgrade to SLGT was considered, but the shield of
clouds/precip in vicinity of the MCV limits confidence in heating
and the area of greatest concern at this time.

..Hart/Kerr.. 06/04/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 051201
SWODY1
SPC AC 051200

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM NEBRASKA/KANSAS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected to
develop late this afternoon and evening from parts of the central
Plains into the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Isolated
severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the
upper Mississippi Valley.

...NE to IA...

A large upper ridge is present today across the southern U.S., with
stronger westerlies over the northern tier of states. One shortwave
trough is noted over SD tracking east-southeastward. This feature
will provide large-scale ascent to parts of the Midwest states
today, leading to scattered clusters of thunderstorms. One area of
expected convective initiation will be late this afternoon along a
retreating surface boundary extending from south-central NE into
southern IA. Ample low-level moisture will reside in the frontal
zone with dewpoints in the low 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg.
Activity should develop around 00z along the boundary and track
slowly eastward. Sufficient deep-layer shear suggests a risk of
supercells capable of large hail. Low-level winds are not expected
to be particularly strong, limiting a more robust tornado risk.
Activity will likely congeal and track eastward across southern
IA/northern MO and eventually northern IL through the evening with a hail/damaging wind risk.

...Northern IL to Lower MI...

A large decaying MCS is moving across northern MO this morning.
While this activity will likely remain non-severe through the
morning, potential for re-intensification exists this afternoon as
activity moves into northern IN and southern lower MI. If
sufficient daytime heating can occur, steep lapse rates and
mesoscale organization of the MCS could result in sporadic damaging winds.

...MI/WI...

A broad area of 60s dewpoints and broken cloud cover will lead to
moderate CAPE values this afternoon from southern MN into much of
WI. As the aforementioned shortwave trough approaches this
afternoon, cooling aloft and strengthening wind fields will promote
organized structures with any convection that can form. Model
guidance varies considerably on the cover of storms in this area,
but a conditional risk of large hail and damaging winds is present.
Will maintain only MRGL risk for this area for now, but an upgrade
to SLGT could be needed today if later model guidance indicates
greater coverage of afternoon/evening storms.

..Hart/Wendt.. 06/05/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 061201
SWODY1
SPC AC 061200

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM INDIANA INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail are
expected to develop later today from parts of the lower Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley into southern New England. Large hail and severe
wind gusts are also expected in the northern High Plains and
southern Plains.

...Indiana to Southern New England...

Morning water vapor loop shows a deepening upper trough over the
Great Lakes region. This trough and an associated mid-level speed
max will spread across the upper Ohio Valley into New England this
afternoon and tonight. Strengthening large-scale ascent ahead of
the trough has led to multiple clusters of ongoing thunderstorms
from eastern IL into parts of OH/PA/NY. One or more of these
clusters, along with new development by early afternoon, is expected
to intensify and spread across the SLGT risk region. Forecast
soundings suggest sufficient CAPE and low-level lapse rates to
support a risk of damaging wind gusts with this activity. Overnight
CAM solutions continue to vary on the likely corridor of greatest
concern. However, there is the potential for a rather widespread
damaging wind event across parts of PA/NY/NJ this afternoon/evening
if sufficient heating and mesoscale organization of the clusters occur.

...Northern High Plains...

A large upper ridge is in place today over the High Plains region.
A southerly low-level jet is expected to intensify by early evening
as an upper trough approaches and low-level cyclogenesis occurs over
southeast MT. This should encourage the development of evening
thunderstorms across eastern MT tracking into western ND overnight.
It is unclear whether the bulk of these storms will be just west of
the warm sector and elevated, or will be surface-based. Regardless,
large hail is the primary concern.

...Southern Plains...

A weak upper low is tracking northeastward from west TX into
Oklahoma this morning. A band of stronger winds aloft to the east of
the low, coupled with pockets of daytime heating and ample moisture,
will promote damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest storms.

..Hart/Wendt.. 06/06/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 081204
SWODY1
SPC AC 081203

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0703 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO PARTS OF
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms with large to very large hail, severe wind
gusts potentially above 70 mph, and a few tornadoes will be possible
today from the Front Range east-southeastward into the central
Plains. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in
parts of the southern High Plains, northern Plains and mid
Mississippi Valley. An isolated hail threat may develop toward the
end of the period in the northern High Plains.

...Eastern CO into Western NE/KS...

Relatively fast southwest flow aloft is present today from the
southwest states into the central Rockies. A surface low will
remain over southwest KS through the day, maintaining a stream of
easterly low-level winds and moist advection into eastern CO and
northwest KS. Daytime heating will further aid the westward
transport of moisture, resulting in an unstable air mass over the
foothills near Denver/CO Springs. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop in this corridor this afternoon, in an environment of steep
mid-level lapse rates, CAPE around 1000 J/kg, and favorable
deep-layer shear. Supercell structures capable of large hail will
be the main early threat. As this activity moves/builds eastward
into the Plains, it will encounter increasingly moist/unstable air
and strengthening low-level shear profiles by early evening. This
will promote a risk of a few supercell tornadoes, large hail, and
damaging winds. An upgrade to ENH risk may be needed in later
updates as clouds/daytime heating and affects of ongoing NE
convection is assessed.

By mid-evening, the activity is expected to be organizing upscale
into linear structures as it moves into southwest NE and northwest
KS. An increasing risk of damaging winds will likely develop, with
storms spreading eastward into the overnight hours.

...Northwest AR...

A cluster of intense thunderstorms is ongoing this morning over
southwest MO/northeast OK. This activity could continue to pose a
risk of isolated damaging wind gusts through the morning into
northwest AR before weakening later today.

...Southern KS/Northwest OK/TX Panhandle...

A dryline will become established this afternoon from the eastern TX
Panhandle to the surface low in south-central KS. Hot conditions
along/west of the dryline will help to initiate isolated
thunderstorms. These high-based cells could pose an occasional
threat of hail and damaging winds for a few hours.

...Eastern KS...

A moist and very unstable air mass will lie across eastern KS today
with CAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg, but with a weak cap. CAM
guidance varies on the potential for afternoon/early evening
thunderstorms in this area, but enough 00z runs suggested a threat
to maintain the SLGT. Any storm that can form would pose a risk of
large hail and damaging winds.

...Southern IL/Western KY...

An upper trough continues to lift northeastward across the mid MS
valley today, with a moist/moderately unstable air mass present from
southern IL southward. Mid-level lapse rates are marginal for
severe storms, and winds aloft are modest. Nevertheless, veering winds-with-height and sufficient CAPE will pose an occasional risk
of strong storms capable of gusty winds or a tornado today.

..Hart/Wendt.. 06/08/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 121250
SWODY1
SPC AC 121248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST
AND THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds are expected
across parts of the Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast,
mainly this afternoon and evening. Severe storms with a threat of
large hail and severe wind gusts will also be possible across parts
of the south-central High Plains.

...East including Appalachians to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic...

A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move over Quebec
later today, with some strengthening of westerlies aloft and weak
mid-level height falls to its south across parts of the Appalachians
and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States. The strongest deep-layer flow
will remain north of the international border, but modest effective
shear (generally 20-30 kt) will overlap relatively strong heating
and modest buoyancy across parts of the Northeast/Mid Atlantic.
Scattered outflow-driven clusters may develop with time and move
eastward, with an attendant threat of damaging wind and perhaps a
few instances of marginally severe hail.

Deep-layer flow/shear will be even weaker into parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas vicinity. However, very strong heating of a
moist airmass will support potential for scattered thunderstorms
with downburst potential, and eventual evolution into loosely
organized clusters capable of damaging outflow winds this afternoon
through at least the early evening hours.

...South-central High Plains...

Moist southerly low-level flow beneath steepening mid-level lapse
rates will result in robust destabilization from the Raton Mesa
vicinity into the adjacent south-central High Plains, with MLCAPE
increasing to near 2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Modest westerly
mid/upper-level flow will support effective shear of 30-40 kt
(highest values north), conditionally supportive of organized
convection. Large-scale ascent will remain subtle, but eventual
storms may develop by late afternoon near the higher terrain, and
spread east-southeastward with time.

Initial storms could evolve into isolated supercells, with a threat
of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado.
Consolidating outflow and a nocturnally strengthening southerly
low-level jet will support some upscale growth during the evening,
with an attendant severe-wind threat expected to spread across parts
of the south-central High Plains, potentially including parts of
southern Kansas, western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle.

Farther south, more isolated strong to severe storms will be
possible across parts of central/eastern New Mexico into Far West
Texas, with a threat of isolated hail and localized severe gusts,
mainly late this afternoon through early evening.

...Central/eastern Nebraska and far western Iowa...

Elevated convection may develop late in the period, in the predawn
hours of Saturday, from parts of central/eastaen Nebraska into
western Iowa, within a warm-advection regime to the north of a warm
front. Guidance continues to vary regarding the magnitude of
elevated moistening/destabilization (which may be affected by MCS
development to the south across Kansas) and coverage of storms prior
to the end of the forecast period 12z Saturday. Effective shear will
be sufficient for at least modest storm organization and an isolated
hail threat, if sufficient destabilization can occur. Hail-related probabilities may ultimately be warranted for tonight, but will
defer an additional outlook cycle for additional
observational/upper-air data.

...Upper Midwest...

Relatively low-topped convection may develop late this afternoon
from the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota near/ahead of a cold front,
as low-level lapse rates steepen beneath seasonably cool
temperatures aloft. Robust west-northwesterly flow aloft will
conditionally favor some storm organization, if sufficient buoyancy
can develop. However, most guidance depicts MLCAPE generally below
500 J/kg, with an inconsistent signal for where the deepest
convection might develop. Some threat for marginal hail and/or
locally damaging wind could evolve across some part of this region,
and probabilities may be needed if confidence increases regarding
sufficient destabilization and storm coverage.

...Oklahoma/North Texas...

On the western/southern periphery of morning convection, robust
pulse-type thunderstorm redevelopment cannot be ruled out across
parts of southern Oklahoma and North Texas near outflow/surface
front. Moderate to strong buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear could
result in localized hail/wind, but it currently appears that
organized severe thunderstorm potential will remain low.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 06/12/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 141256
SWODY1
SPC AC 141254

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and
some hail are expected across the Upper Ohio River Valley and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States during the afternoon and evening.

...Upper Ohio Valley to New England...

A shortwave trough will steadily amplify over the Great Lakes with a
moderately strong belt of southwesterly mid-level flow across the
region. Near/ahead of the eastward-moving cold front, increasing
thunderstorm development is expected into the afternoon, increasing
in both coverage and intensity. Ample mid-level height falls and
around 40 kt of front-parallel effective shear could support a few initial/semi-discrete supercells prior to more prevalent
upscale-growing linear modes, with the primary concern being
damaging wind gusts. A brief tornado and/or hail could also occur
given the relative strength of the wind profiles.

...Mid-Atlantic to southern Appalachians/Carolinas...

Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of the cold front
during the afternoon, generally focusing on a pre-frontal trough as
well as high terrain/Blue Ridge vicinity, with some additional sea
breeze augmentations across the Carolinas/coastal plain. From
roughly southern/eastern Virginia southward, upper 60s to lower 70s
F dewpoints and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will
yield a corridor of strong surface-based buoyancy ahead of
storm development. Despite weaker deep-layer shear and limited
midlevel height falls with southward extent, the strongly unstable
air mass will favor eastward-moving thunderstorm clusters capable of
producing damaging wind gusts.

Somewhat stronger mid-level westerlies will reside over the
Mid-Atlantic region, contributing to 30-40 kt of effective shear
amid moderate surface-based buoyancy. This environment will support
several organized clusters capable of scattered damaging wind gusts,
and some locally higher concentrations of wind damage will be
possible with any longer-lived clusters that evolve.

...Southern High Plains...

Along the tail-end of a composite cold front/outflow boundary
extending westward into the southern Rockies/High Plains, widely
scattered thunderstorms will spread southeastward during the
afternoon. Given moist easterly low-level flow and 30-40 kt of
effective shear along the boundary, a couple loosely organized
storms will pose a risk of locally severe gusts and hail across
parts of eastern New Mexico and far west Texas. Additional storms
are expected along the boundary extending eastward across
northern/central Texas to the ArkLaTex, though weaker deep-layer
shear should limit storm longevity/organization.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 06/14/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 180551
SWODY1
SPC AC 180549

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC...OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST...AND ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from
Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic, with primarily damaging wind gusts or
marginal hail. Scattered severe storms are possible from upstate New
York into New England, with damaging gusts or even a tornado. A few
tornadoes may occur over parts of the Gulf Coast states, and
scattered storms may produce gusty winds or marginal hail from
Oklahoma into northwest Texas.

...From KY into the Mid Atlantic...

Moderate mid to high level westerlies will exist from the OH Valley
to Mid Atlantic, south of the primary wave over the Northeast. This
region will be south of the midlevel drying, with ample low-level
moisture remaining in place ahead of the slower moving portion of
the front. Scattered storms may be ongoing early in the day from KY
into WV, with perhaps wind or even tornado potential as SRH will be
high at that time. As heating occurs during the day, boundary layer
mixing as well as veering and weakening winds at 850 mb may reduce
tornado risk. However, ample deep-layer shear and nearly
unidirectional wind profiles will favor both cells and fast-moving
clusters of storms producing damaging gusts and locally severe hail
throughout the day.

...Northeast...

Within a broader area of cyclonic flow aloft, a leading shortwave
trough will move from the Lower Great Lakes into the Northeast, with
a 90 kt midlevel speed max and cooling aloft moving across NY and
parts of New England during the day. Low pressure will develop into
southern Quebec, with a cold front extending southward into the region.

Surface heating and gusty south winds will bring 60s F dewpoints
into the area with up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE expected. Relatively warm
profiles will develop near 300 mb, somewhat limiting storm depth.
However, ample midlevel cooling will still support sufficient
destabilization. Strong deep-layer shear and backed surface winds
ahead of the cold front will favor low-topped supercells. Cells
should develop over northern NY by 18Z, and will move quickly east,
producing marginal hail and sporadic damaging gusts initially. The
low EL height may mitigate hail production somewhat. By late
afternoon, a tornado or two will be possible as storms encounter a
stronger SRH environment farther east.

...Parts of MS/AL/GA/FL...

Wind fields associated with the remnants of Arthur will increase
from LA into GA today, as a weak surface low and midlevel wave move
across MS/AL/GA. This system will provide a focus for storms which
will spread northeast out of LA/MS into AL, the FL Panhandle, and
eventually into GA. Although temperatures aloft are warm, areas of
strong low-level shear and mid 70s F dewpoints will support
organized bands of storms, some with embedded stronger cells.
Transient supercells will be possible with localized tornado risk.
Storms are likely to be ongoing over southeast LA and southern MS at
the start of the period, and these will develop northeastward
throughout the day.

...OK into northwest TX...

An east-west oriented cold front will move southward across the TX
Panhandle, Oklahoma and northwest today, pushing well south of the
stronger westerlies aloft over the central Plains. The air mass
ahead of the front will feature 70s F dewpoints, while daytime
heating brings MUCAPE values into the 3000-4000 J/kg range. South of
this cold front, low pressure is forecast to develop over western TX
where the strongest heating will occur.

Isolated morning thunderstorms may be present from the KS/OK border
area eastward toward the Ozarks, and marginal hail cannot be ruled
out due to substantial elevated CAPE. Any storms that form near the
boundary as it moves south during the day may produce locally strong
gusts. The greatest risk of locally severe gusts or marginal hail
appears to be across southwest OK into northwest TX, where the front
will be more favorably timed with peak heating. Shear will be weak,
but extensive outflow is possible.

..Jewell/Weinman.. 06/18/2026

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* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)