ACUS02 KWNS 210552
SWODY2
SPC AC 210550

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible across portions
of the southern Plains with potential for large hail and damaging wind.

...Synopsis...
Two weak shortwaves, with one wave in central Plains and a secondary
wave into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys, are forecast within the
broader Northern Rockies trough through afternoon on D2/Friday. A
surface low will be located across eastern New Mexico/southeastern
Colorado with a front lifting northward into Kansas and a dryline
extending southward into southwestern Texas. Another surface low
will develop across the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys with a warm
front lifting northward across Kentucky. These features will be the
focus for scattered thunderstorm development in both regions by the afternoon/evening.

...Southern and Central Plains...

Scattered thunderstorm development is expected across the Cap Rock
near the dryline in Texas and back into eastern New Mexico along the
high terrain Friday afternoon and evening. Steep low to mid-level
lapse rates will be in place across much of the region from eastern
New Mexico into western Texas. Dew points in the mid 50s to low 60s
and daytime heating will yield moderate instability amid deep layer
shear around 30-40 kts. This will promote initial supercells across
the high terrain with potential for additional multi-cell clusters
through time. These may grow upscale into an MCS into western
Oklahoma by the evening. The primary risk will be for large hail
before the damaging wind risk increases into the evening.
A few additional strong thunderstorms may extend into portions of
southern Kansas. The thermodynamic environment becomes less
favorable with northern extent due to widespread cloud cover and
morning precipitation. However, increasing mid-level flow and shear
may allow for a few organized cells with potential for large hail
and strong to severe wind further north.

...Tennessee and Ohio Valleys...

A warm front will lift across northern Tennessee into Kentucky
through the afternoon on Friday, with 60-70s dew points streaming
northward ahead of the approaching mid-level wave. Modest height
falls are expected across western Kentucky into the Ohio Valley,
with an increase in 850-700 mb flow. Widely scattered thunderstorms
are expected overnight into Friday morning. An increase in this
activity can be expected as a vorticity maxima and increasing large
scale ascent into the afternoon occurs. Though instability will be
marginal, guidance does suggest a plume of higher theta-e air may
advect into western/central Kentucky by the afternoon. In addition,
guidance suggests a few transient supercells will be possible with
potential for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado.

..Thornton.. 05/21/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 290559
SWODY2
SPC AC 290557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on
Saturday from parts of western and central Nebraska into southern
and western South Dakota. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also
be possible in the northern High Plains, and from parts of the
central Plains into the southern High Plains.

...Western and Central Nebraska/Southern and Western South
Dakota/Eastern Wyoming/Northeast Colorado/Southeast Montana...

At mid-levels, a low will remain over southwestern Wyoming on
Saturday, as a shortwave trough moves into the central High Plains.
At the surface, a trough will deepen over the central and northern
High Plains. Surface winds will be from a southeasterly direction
over much of Nebraska and South Dakota, which will result in
moisture advection throughout the day. By afternoon, surface
dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to moderate instability over
much of the central Plains extending northwestward into the northern
High Plains. Low-level convergence is forecast to become maximized
near a well-developed dryline. In response, scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop near the dryline in the afternoon and move
north and northeastward across western and central Nebraska into
southern South Dakota.

To the east of the dryline and near the moist axis, MLCAPE is
forecast to increase into the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range by late
afternoon. Forecast soundings at 00Z in west-central Nebraska
suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in the 30 to 40 knot range with
700-500 mb lapse rates around 8 C/km. This will be favorable for
supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. The severe threat
is expected to persist into the mid to late evening, as a cluster of
strong to severe storms moves northeastward across central Nebraska
and south-central South Dakota. Widely-spaced severe thunderstorms
will also be possible across parts of southeast Montana, but
instability is forecast to be weaker which will keep any severe
threat more localized.

...Kansas/Oklahoma/West Texas...

West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be located over much of the south-central U.S. on Saturday. At the surface, a sharply defined
dryline is forecast to be located from central Kansas
south-southwestward into western Oklahoma and west-central Texas. To
the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will
contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. Along and to the
east of much of the dryline, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the
30 to 40 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This
environment will support an isolated severe threat. Hail and strong
wind gusts will be the primary hazards. Forcing is expected to be
relatively weak which will keep storm coverage isolated.

..Broyles.. 05/29/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 300602
SWODY2
SPC AC 300600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe gusts will be possible
Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the mid Missouri
Valley. Isolated severe storms will be possible in parts of the
Dakotas, and from central Kansas into Missouri.

...Northern Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Central
Plains/Northern Ozarks...

At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move northward across the
northern Plains as heights rise across much of the central U.S. At
the surface, a dryline will sharpen during the day from
south-central South Dakota southward into east-central Nebraska and
central Kansas. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints will
range from the mid 60s F further north in southeast South Dakota to
near 70 F southward into southeast Nebraska and far northwest
Missouri. As surface temperatures warm within the moist sector,
moderate instability will develop across the mid Missouri Valley by
afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will remain weak over most of
the region, model forecasts suggest that a northwest-to-southeast
zone of low-level convergence will become focused during the
afternoon to the east of the dryline. This will support scattered
thunderstorm development, with the greatest convective coverage
expected from southeast South Dakota into eastern Nebraska and
western Iowa.

Forecast soundings south and southwest of Omaha in the late
afternoon have MLCAPE in the 3000 to 3500 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear
near 30 knots, and low to mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km. This
environment will support supercells with large hail and severe wind
gusts. The more dominant supercells could produce hailstones greater
than 2 inches in diameter. The severe threat is expected to continue
into the evening. A potential for isolated severe storms will also
be possible over parts of the western and central Dakotas, along an
axis of low-level moisture and instability.

Further south into parts of eastern Kansas and west-central
Missouri, a moist airmass will be in place on Sunday with surface
dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F. This will result in
moderate to strong instability by afternoon with MLCAPE likely to
peak in the 3000 to 5000 J/kg range over parts of eastern Kansas and
western Missouri. Although large-scale ascent will be limited,
isolated storms could initiate in areas where low-level convergence
becomes maximized. If a cell or two can develop and persist in the
late afternoon or early evening, then an isolated severe threat
would be likely. Hail and isolated severe wind gusts would be the
primary threats.

..Broyles.. 05/30/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 310601
SWODY2
SPC AC 310559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected
Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains.
Isolated severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible from the
parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley and northern Ozarks
southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley and Southeast.

...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...

Mid-level heights will rise on Monday across the central U.S. as
southwesterly mid-level flow remains in place over the Rockies and
High Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen in far southwest
Kansas, with upslope easterly flow in place over much of the central
Plains. An axis of low-level moisture and instability is forecast to
setup from central Kansas west-northwestward into northeastern
Colorado, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s F. As
surface temperatures warm during the day, convective initiation will
take place in the higher terrain of east-central Colorado.
Additional storms are expected to develop further east across the
central High Plains along and near the instability axis.

Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00Z have MLCAPE in
the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear near 40 knots. In
addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 8 C/km.
This environment will support supercells with large hail and severe
wind gusts. The potential for severe wind gusts should increase
during the evening as a cluster of cells move east-northeastward
across the central High Plains.

Further east and northeast into parts of eastern Kansas, eastern
Nebraska and eastern South Dakota, the presence of the mid-level
ridge will keep convective coverage more isolated. Beneath the
ridge, surface dewpoints are forecast to be from the mid 60s F north
to the lower 70s F south, which will result in an axis of moderate
to strong instability by afternoon. If storms can initiate and
persist in spite of the weak forcing, then a severe threat would be
expected. Severe wind gusts and hail would be the primary threats.

...Lower Missouri Valley/Northern Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Southeast...

A large-scale mid-level cyclonic flow pattern will be in place on
Monday across much of the eastern U.S. At the surface, a moist
airmass will be located from the lower Missouri Valley southeastward
into the mid Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Surface dewpoints
will be in the upper 60s F to lower 70s F. This will contribute to
an axis of moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Some model
forecasts move a shortwave trough, and an associated morning
convective system southward across the mid Mississippi Valley. Other
solutions keep convective coverage more isolated. This points to
spatial uncertainty concerning any severe threat. If the more
aggressive solutions pan out, then the wind-damage and hail threat
could be greatest from parts of western Tennessee southward into the
central Gulf Coast states. An isolated wind-damage and hail threat
may also extend eastward into northern Georgia and South Carolina,
along an east-to-west axis of instability.

..Broyles.. 05/31/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 010728
SWODY2
SPC AC 010727

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

CORRECTED TO ADD WIND PROBABILITY GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts and potentially an
isolated tornado threat are expected on Tuesday afternoon and
evening in parts of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and hail
will also be possible in parts of the southern and central High
Plains. A few severe wind gusts may also occur from southern Georgia
into northern and eastern Florida.

...Northern Plains...

A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward on Tuesday over
the top of a moist and unstable airmass located in the northern
Plains. At the surface, a south-to-north corridor of low-level
moisture will be in place across the Dakotas. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop along the western edge of the moist sector
during the afternoon, being supported by large-scale ascent
associated with the shortwave trough. Storms will likely increase in
coverage during the late afternoon and early evening, with multiple
small storm clusters moving northeastward across the region.

Along and near the axis of low-level moisture, MLCAPE is forecast to
increase into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range by afternoon. Within this
moist airmass, the most favorable environment for severe storms is
forecast near the mid-level trough in central North Dakota. Forecast
soundings around Bismarck at 21Z have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 45
knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km, suggesting that
supercells with large hail will be possible. In addition, late
afternoon forecast soundings have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in
the 200 to 250 m2/s2 range, which could support an isolated tornado
threat. Severe wind gusts would also be possible with any organized
clusters that can persist from late afternoon into the evening.

...Southern and Central High Plains...

Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place on Tuesday in the
southern and central Plains, over the western edge of the moist
sector. Although model forecasts suggest that large-scale forcing
will be limited in most areas, some models forecast a corridor of
maximized low-level convergence in the afternoon over eastern
Colorado and eastern New Mexico. This would support isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development, with storms moving
east-northeastward across the southern and central High Plains
during the afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings to the east of
this axis of low-level convergence during the late afternoon have
0-6 km shear in the 20 to 25 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates
near 8 C/km. This suggests that hail will be possible. Isolated
severe wind gusts may also occur, especially if a convective cluster
can become somewhat organized during the early to mid evening.

...Northern and Eastern Florida/Southern Georgia...

An upper-level trough will move southward into the Southeast on
Tuesday, as a cold front advances southward into southern Georgia.
Along and to the south of the front, surface dewpoints from the mid
60s to lower 70s F will contribute to the development of moderate
instability by afternoon. Within this unstable airmass, low-level
lapse rates will become steep during the mid to late afternoon,
which may support an isolated wind-damage threat with the stronger
multicells. An isolated potential for severe wind gusts will also be
possible in the afternoon along sea breeze boundaries near the coast
of northern and eastern Florida.

..Broyles.. 06/01/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 020549
SWODY2
SPC AC 020547

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts
will be possible Wednesday afternoon into night in parts of the
northern Plains into upper Mississippi Valley. More sporadic
occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible
across parts of the central High Plains and southwest Texas.

...Synopsis...

A mid/upper-level low initially over southern Saskatchewan Wednesday
morning is forecast to shift east into southern Manitoba through the
forecast period. At the same time, an attending belt of enhanced mid/upper-level winds will overspread the northern Plains into upper
MS Valley, along with a corridor of modest height falls. Elsewhere,
a lower-latitude short-wave trough will drift north-northeast from
the southern into central High Plains.

At the surface, low pressure linked with the Canadian upper low will
move through the same areas, while a trailing cold front pushes
through the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. A secondary
surface low is expected to form along the front in central SD
Wednesday afternoon with the trailing portion of the boundary
settling into the NE Panhandle and southeast WY.

...Northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley Wednesday afternoon/night...

Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Wednesday morning across
portions of ND in association with a subtle short-wave trough moving
through the area. Model guidance is suggestive that a subset of the
early-day convection could linger through the morning into early
afternoon across portions of eastern ND into northwest MN, which
could ultimately limit the degree of air mass destabilization in
those areas. However to the south of the associated cloud
debris/convective outflow, stronger daytime heating in conjunction
with boundary layer dewpoints in the 60s and steep mid-level lapse
rates will support a moderately unstable air mass with MLCAPE of
1500-2500 J/kg.

Modest height falls aloft will combine with convergence along the
cold front and preceding convective outflow boundary to support
robust thunderstorm development by mid/late afternoon across
portions of south-central and southeast ND into central and
northeast SD. Forecast soundings indicate the presence of a
vertically veering wind profile with 35-40 kt of effective bulk
shear, which will support organized storm modes, including
supercells. Elongated hodographs resulting from the presence of
relatively strong flow above 8-9 km will favor a conditional threat
for two-inch or greater hail with any sustained supercells. In
addition, some tornado threat could materialize by late afternoon
into early evening across portions of southeast ND into northeast SD
from the vicinity of the expected outflow boundary to ahead of the
secondary surface low, where some enhancement of low-level shear is forecast.

Increasing convergence along coalescing cold pools owing to a
strengthening low-level jet is expected to support upscale growth of
storms into an MCS Wednesday evening across portions of eastern SD
and western MN, with an associated risk for damaging wind gusts.

...Southern and Central High Plains Wednesday afternoon/evening...

The models indicate the potential for early-day storms across
portions of the southern High Plains owing to forcing for ascent
associated with the short-wave trough. Associated cloud cover is
expected to limit destabilization potential in those areas, with
comparably greater instability developing across the central Plains,
and across portions of southwest TX. The migration of the short-wave
trough into the central high Plains by afternoon into evening will
support clusters of diurnally enhanced thunderstorms in those areas,
with an attendant risk for sporadic large hail and damaging winds.
Weakening vertical shear with southward extent from the northern
into central Plains is expected to limit the potential for a more
organized severe-weather episode. Additional strong to severe storms
appear possible along the favored terrain of southwest TX, where
isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds may occur.

..Mead.. 06/02/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 030532
SWODY2
SPC AC 030530

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very hail and damaging
winds are possible from parts of the northern High Plains into lower
elevations of the northern and central Plains Thursday afternoon
into night. More isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging
winds appear possible in parts of the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes.

...Synopsis...

A low-amplitude, cyclonic flow regime will be maintained across the north-central U.S. with several embedded disturbances moving through
that airflow pattern. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to
move from the upper MS Valley into the upper Great Lakes with that
boundary trailing southwest through the mid MO Valley to eastern WY,
where it will link with a lee cyclone. A dryline/lee trough will
extend south from the low pressure through the central and southern
High Plains.

...Northern and Central Plains...

A short-wave trough embedded in the cyclonic flow initially over the
northern Rockies Thursday morning will shift into the northern High
Plains by afternoon. Strengthening mid-level winds and forcing for
ascent downstream from that feature will progressively overspread a
moist and moderately unstable (MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg) upslope regime
present across portions of southeast MT, northeast WY, and western
SD, to the north of the surface boundary. Those processes will
contribute to initial storm development in those areas by mid
afternoon with the kinematic environment favoring supercells capable
of large to very large hail and perhaps a tornado or two.

Additional storm development will be possible farther east along the
front in central/eastern SD and northern NE amidst a moderately
unstable environment (MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg) with weakening
vertical shear and mid-level lapse rates with eastward extent. As
such, a mix of multi-cell and some supercell structures appear
possible with an associated risk for large hail and severe wind gusts.

Those two separate regimes may consolidate into one or more MCSs
Thursday evening/night, with a continued risk for damaging winds and
sporadic large hail.

Elsewhere, diurnally enhanced storms will be possible south along
the lee trough into northeast CO, as well as ahead of a sheared
vorticity maximum moving through portions of northeast KS, eastern
NE, and IA. Steep lapse rates and around 30 kt of deep-layer shear
may support isolated, high-based storms in the former area with some
wind and hail threat. Poorer mid-level lapse rates and weaker
vertical shear expected in the latter areas would limit
severe-weather potential to mainly wet microburst activity. Model
soundings do show some low-level hodograph curvature, so a brief
tornado cannot be ruled out.

...Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes...

Relatively poor mid-level lapse rates are forecast across the
pre-frontal warm sector Thursday; however the presence of
boundary-layer dewpoints in the low to mid 60s will largely
contribute to a narrow axis of MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg by
afternoon. The glancing influence of a mid-level low moving into the
northwest Ontario coupled with convergence along the front are
expected to foster widely scattered thunderstorms by mid to late afternoon.

The presence of 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will be sufficient for
multi-cells and transient supercell structures capable of locally
damaging wind gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail. Modest
strengthening of the low-level jet is noted across northern WI into
the western UP of MI late Thursday afternoon into evening, which
could yield sufficient low-level shear for some tornado risk. No
probabilities will be included in this forecast due to uncertainty
in the degree of instability in those areas.

..Mead.. 06/03/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 040523
SWODY2
SPC AC 040521

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA...NORTHERN KANSAS... MUCH OF IA...INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail,
damaging winds with potentially significant gusts, and perhaps a
couple of tornadoes are expected Friday afternoon into night across
portions of the central Plains into upper Great Lakes.

...Synopsis...

A series of weak, mid-level disturbances will translate from the
northern Plains into the upper Great Lakes, ahead of a building
ridge from central Canada into the northern Plains. At the surface,
the primary focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development is a
front, which is expected to stretch from the western UP of MI
southwest through the mid MO Valley into the central High Plains by mid-afternoon Friday. A surface low is forecast to develop along the
front over south-central NE or north-central KS, with a dryline
extending south-southwest from that feature into northwest OK.

...Central Plains into the Upper Great Lakes...

Latest guidance is suggestive that the combination of steep
mid-level lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s
to low 70s will support strong instability along and south of the
NE/IA segment of the front with HREF mean SBCAPE as high as
3000-4000+ J/kg. Forecast instability decreases with northeastward
extent into the upper Midwest, due in part to the potential for
early-day storms and lingering cloud cover.

While mid-level heights are forecast to rise through the day across
the central Plains, strong heating west of the dryline and south of
the surface front should sufficiently erode the cap for isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon into
early evening in the vicinity of the triple point over south-central
NE. Locally backed near-surface winds in that area will offset
somewhat marginal mid-level flow to yield 30-35 kt of deep-layer
shear, which will support supercell storm modes, given the degree of instability. Large to very large hail and perhaps a couple tornadoes
will be possible in the early life cycle of the storms, with a
subsequent transition to more of a damaging wind threat (with
significant gusts possible) by mid/late evening.

Additional severe storms are expected farther east along the front
into IA during the afternoon and evening hours with strong
instability and modest vertical shear supporting a threat for large
to very large hail and severe wind gusts.

Should subsequent model guidance show higher confidence in more
concentrated storm development along the NE/IA segment of the front,
an upgrade to a level 3/Enhanced Risk may be considered.

Farther northeast along the front across the upper Midwest, the
diffuse nature of the boundary casts some uncertainty on exactly
where the favored area for diurnally enhanced storm development will
be. Nonetheless, the presence of a moderately unstable air mass and
modest deep-layer shear will be supportive of a few severe storms
capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. An isolated
severe-weather threat may continue to spread east into the upper
Great Lakes Friday evening into night, driven largely by warm
advection along a westerly low-level jet.

..Mead.. 06/04/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 050538
SWODY2
SPC AC 050536

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
possible from portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the
Northeast, and over the northern High Plains. More isolated
occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible across
parts of the southern Plains and the lower Missouri Valley into Mid
Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough initially from James Bay into the Great Lakes
Saturday morning is forecast to amplify while translating through
southern Quebec and the Northeast. Associated mid/upper-level jet
streaks within the base of the strengthening trough are forecast to
overspread the upper OH Valley through southern New England,
enhancing vertical shear and forcing for ascent in those areas.
Elsewhere, a jet streak will round the base of a deep trough over
the Canadian Rockies into Pacific Northwest, with the trough axis
pivoting east through the Columbia Basin toward the northern
Rockies. Meanwhile, a lower-latitude trough will move through the
southern and central Plains, with a belt of enhanced mid/upper-level
flow extending from southwest TX through the ArkLaTex into Ozark
Plateau during the peak of the diurnal heating cycle.

At the surface, an initially diffuse cold front associated with the
Great Lakes/Northeast short-wave trough will slowly advance through
the Great Lakes, northern OH Valley, and St. Lawrence Valley into
northern New England. Over the northern High Plains, a surface low
is forecast to deepen along a cold front emerging from the northern Rockies.

...Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast...

Areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing
Saturday morning within a broad zone of warm advection and moisture
flux occurring along a westerly low-level jet. A subset of those
thunderstorms are likely to persist and gradually intensify from
late morning into afternoon. Additional, diurnally enhanced storms
are expected to develop within preferred zones of confluence within
the weakly capped warm sector, which will destabilize from
west-to-east over the course of the day.

The 00z HREF indicates a corridor of mean SBCAPE of 1000-1500+ J/kg
developing by afternoon from the OH Valley into southern New
England, which will coincide with steadily strengthening deep-layer
shear. As such, the potential exists for organized storm modes,
including bowing line segments and supercells capable of swaths of
wind damage and large hail during the afternoon and evening hours.
The greatest supercell potential is expected to evolve across the
upper OH Valley, where the large hail is most probable, along with
the threat for a brief tornado or two.

...Northern High Plains...

Late-arriving forcing for ascent and more robust boundary-layer
moisture content are expected to delay thunderstorm development
until late afternoon or evening in the vicinity of the surface low
and front situated along the MT-ND Border. The presence of a
moderately unstable air mass and steadily strengthening vertical
shear are expected to support supercell storm modes with an
attendant threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. The
severe-weather threat may continue into the overnight hours,
centered along the low-level jet axis.

...Red River Valley into southwest Texas...

As mentioned in the synopsis, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow is
forecast within the southern/southeastern periphery of the upper
low, which will enhance vertical shear to some extent. Slightly
cooler temperatures aloft coupled with a warm and moist boundary
layer will support a moderately unstable air mass in areas
unaffected by early storms and lingering cloud cover. Forecast
soundings indicate relatively weak capping, which should permit
increasing storm coverage by afternoon along any pre-existing
boundaries. The overall environment appears supportive of multicell
storms capable of isolated occurrences of large hail and locally
strong wind gusts during the afternoon and evening hours.

...Lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys...

Moderate to strong afternoon instability is forecast to develop
along and south of the trailing surface front or convective outflow
boundary remnant from Friday night thunderstorms. Weak low-level
warm advection coupled with the growing influence of a mid-level
trough approaching from the southwest are expected to support widely
scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. While
vertical shear is expected to remain relatively weak, the degree of
instability will support vigorous up/downdrafts capable of
marginally severe hail and/or locally damaging wind gusts.

..Mead.. 06/05/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 070600
SWODY2
SPC AC 070558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING...NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe storms capable of large to very
large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two are possible Monday
afternoon and evening in northeast Colorado, southeast Wyoming, and
the southern Nebraska Panhandle. Additional, more isolated
occurrences of large hail and damaging winds will be possible from
the Canadian border into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Sporadic
damaging winds may occur from the Ozark Plateau into the Mid-south.

...Synopsis...

A mid-level jet streak and associated channeled vorticity maximum
initially from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains will
lift northeast into Manitoba, ahead of an amplifying short-wave
trough moving through the Pacific Northwest into northern Rockies.
Elsewhere, loosely organized troughing initially along the MS Valley
will shift northeast into the Great Lakes and OH Valley.

At the surface, a front initially stretching from the central
Dakotas to low pressure over western KS is expected to weaken
through the day in response to falling pressures across the northern
Rockies. A weak cyclone is expected to persist over southwest KS or
northwest OK, with a dryline extending southwest into western TX.

...Great Plains...

With the early-day passage of the lead short-wave trough through the
northern High Plains, mid-level heights may rebound slightly during
the afternoon, with negligible forcing for ascent indicated in model
guidance. As such, the most probable location for isolated to widely
scattered severe-storm development appears to be along favored
terrain from north of the Palmer Divide to along the Cheyenne Ridge.
There, moist upslope flow will become established by afternoon,
beneath a plume of steep lapse rates, yielding MLCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg. Vertical shear is expected to strengthen through the day with
effective bulk shear increasing to around 50 kt by late afternoon
into early evening. As such, the potential will exist for supercells
capable of large to very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or
two. The severe-threat may move into the adjacent High Plains Monday
evening before the storms weaken.

Across the lower elevations of the Plains there is considerably more
model spread in the timing and location of storms through the
forecast period, likely as a result of the weak forcing. The
residual surface front from eastern SD through central NE into
western KS, and south along the dryline into the OK/TX Panhandles
will be viable locations for diurnally enhanced storms amidst a
moderate to strongly unstable air mass. As such, isolated
occurrences for large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.
Stronger deep-layer shear is forecast from northern KS into the
northern Plains, which may support a longer-lived, more organized
storm threat. However, given the model variability mentioned above,
no additional level 2/Slight Risk areas will be highlighted with
this forecast.

Finally, it appears a separate, elevated thunderstorm regime could
materialize early Tuesday morning from parts of eastern MT through
northern ND, where some large hail threat could develop.

...Ozark Plateau into the Mid-South...

A number of models indicate the potential for a complex of
thunderstorms to be ongoing Monday morning across portions of the
Ozark Plateau, aided by low-level warm advection along a modest
low-level jet. That activity is expected to continue east/southeast
through the day, with some potential for cold pool organization and
related damaging wind potential as the system encounters a moist and
moderately unstable air mass.

..Mead.. 06/07/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 110535
SWODY2
SPC AC 110534

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of mainly
damaging wind gusts are expected from western New England and the
Mid-Atlantic to eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina Friday
afternoon and evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail appear
possible from central New Mexico into far west Texas.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough and attending 50 kt mid-level jet streak
initially from the Upper Great Lakes into mid MS Valley are forecast
to weaken while progressing through the OH Valley to along the St.
Lawrence Valley. At the surface, a cold front initially from
southwest Ontario to near the confluence of the OH and MS Rivers at
12z Friday will advance east/southeast into New England and
Mid-Atlantic, where it will merge with a lee trough closer to the coast.

...Western New England and the Mid-Atlantic into the Central Appalachians...

While mid-level lapse rates are not expected to be overly steep, the
presence of a hot, moist boundary layer will largely contribute to
moderate to strong instability Friday afternoon ahead of the cold
front and in the vicinity of the lee trough. Thunderstorm
development is expected by early to mid afternoon across portions of
NY and PA within a zone of forcing for ascent preceding the
mid-level wave. Additional storm development is likely through the
afternoon along the front and/or favored terrain in the central and
southern Appalachians.

The strongest vertical shear is expected to lag the surface warm
sector to the west, leading to a mix of multicells and line segments
with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts. Isolated
occurrences of marginally severe hail may also accompany the
strongest storms.

Individual thunderstorms are expected to gradually congeal into
outflow-driven clusters by late afternoon into early evening,
leading to a potentially more concentrated damaging-wind threat
across the Mid-Atlantic.

...Central New Mexico into Far West Texas...

Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop within a moist and
moderately unstable upslope regime Friday afternoon. Vertical shear
is forecast to be somewhat marginal for storm organization; however,
the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates will be supportive of
some large-hail potential with the strongest updrafts.

...Northern High Plains into Minnesota and Wisconsin...

Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon
within a marginally unstable environment, with some potential for
gusty winds and/or small hail. Vertical shear is expected to be
relatively strong, and if subsequent model runs indicate greater
instability, severe-weather probabilities may need to be added.

..Mead.. 06/11/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 130517
SWODY2
SPC AC 130515

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are
expected across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity Sunday afternoon and
evening. Additional strong to severe storms are expected across the
Upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes area.

...Mid-Atlantic Region...

An upper trough will be oriented over the Upper Great Lakes Sunday
morning. A shortwave embedded within the large-scale troughing will
pivot east across the Midwest/Lower Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic.
Ahead of this main shortwave trough, most guidance suggests a lead
impulse will overspread the Chesapeake Bay vicinity during the
afternoon. Low to midlevel west/southwesterly flow will increase to
around 30-40 kt in association with these features. This enhanced
flow will aid in organized thunderstorms in multiple bands during
the afternoon and evening.

Rich boundary layer moisture is expected to be in place to the lee
of the Blue Ridge across the NC/VA Piedmont and Chesapeake Bay
vicinity into southeast PA/southern NJ. Northward extent of moisture
return remains a bit uncertain, but at least low 60s F dewpoints
should filter into much of PA and NY ahead of an eastward-advancing
cold front. Strong heating will support a corridor of moderate
destabilization, with MLCAPE in the 1500-2500 J/kg range across
eastern VA/NC and vicinity. Instability is expected to be more muted
with northward extent where boundary layer moisture will be somewhat
less and midlevel lapse rates rather poor.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop within
lee troughing near the Blue Ridge and spread east across the Chesapeake/DelMarVa/southeast PA/southern NJ vicinity during the
afternoon to early evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the main
concern with these storms, though isolated hail or a tornado also
will be possible. If current model trends continue, higher coverage probabilities/upgrade to Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) could be needed in
subsequent outlooks. For now, wind probabilities have been increased
to 30 percent across the DelMarVa into southeast PA/southern NJ.

Additional bands/clusters of storms are likely to develop during the
afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front from the Upper Ohio
Valley into PA/NY. While instability will be lower across this area,
deep-layer flow will be stronger. Linear bands and clusters will
pose a risk for isolated severe/damaging wind gusts through the evening.

...Southeast NM to the ArkLaTex...

A southward sagging surface front/composite outflow will extend west
to east across the region. A very moist and moderately unstable
airmass will be in place ahead of the front. Isolated convection
cold pose a risk for strong wind gusts. Across southeast
NM/southwest TX, a few storms could also produce hail. Weak
large-scale ascent and convection becoming undercut by the surface
boundary will limit overall severe potential.

..Leitman.. 06/13/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 170527
SWODY2
SPC AC 170525

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from
Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic, and across parts of the Northeast.
Damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard with this activity.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough over the Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio
Valley Thursday morning will pivot northeast across the Northeast
through evening. Strong deep layer southwesterly flow associated
with this feature will already be in place at the beginning of the
period, with 500 mb flow from 60-80 kt stretching across portions of
the Northeast. Meanwhile, an intense 850 mb low-level jet will lift
northeast across the central Appalachians, the Mid-Atlantic, and the
Northeast. A surface low over southern Ontario will pivot northeast
into Quebec, while a trailing cold front stretches from the Lower
Great Lakes west/southwest toward the Mid-MS Valley and the OK/TX
Panhandles Thursday morning. The northern extent of this boundary
will spread east across the Northeast while the western extent
across the Ohio Valley into the Plains slowly sags southward.

Across the Gulf Coast states, the remnants of current Potential
Tropical Cyclone One will migrate eastward across the region. This
feature could locally enhance deep layer shear amid a very moist and
modestly airmass.

...Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Vicinity...

Convection will be ongoing Thursday morning in the vicinity of the
surface cold front. Ahead of the front, a seasonally moist airmass
will be in place. Instability will likely be muted from PA/NY into
New England due to cloud cover, poor lapse rates and a narrow/modest
warm sector. Nevertheless, intense deep-layer flow will overspread
the Northeast and fast moving storms could produce damaging wind gusts.

Stronger instability is expected in a corridor from KY into the
Mid-Atlantic where richer boundary layer moisture will be in place.
This corridor also may see stronger heating. The strong 850 mb
low-level jet will gradually weaken through the day as it lifts
northeast, but strong deep-layer flow will persist atop this
moist/unstable airmass. Scattered storms are expected during the
afternoon into evening, posing mainly a risk of damaging gusts.

...Gulf Coast/Southeast...

The remnants of current Potential Tropical Cyclone One will migrate east/northeast across the region on Thursday. A very moist airmass
will be in place, and where stronger heating can occur, moderate destabilization is expected. Furthermore, the remnant low will
locally enhance vertical shear. Isolated strong storms capable of
producing gusty winds and a tornado or two will be possible.

...Southern Plains to Mid-South...

Severe thunderstorm potential is a bit more uncertain from
OK/northwest TX into the Ozarks vicinity. A very moist and unstable
airmass will be in place ahead of the southward sagging cold front.
However, large-scale ascent will be weak and capping could limit
storm coverage. If storms can develop ahead of the front, some risk
for strong wind and hail will be possible.

..Leitman.. 06/17/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)