ACUS02 KWNS 140448
SWODY2
SPC AC 140447

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NM...SOUTHEAST CO...AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms over the southern Rockies may result in some
severe potential as they move southeast during the afternoon and
evening. Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms are possible from the
Gulf Coast states to the Carolinas, and across the northern
Plains/Upper Midwest.

...Synopsis...

Broad, upper troughing will envelop much of the CONUS from the
Rockies to the East Coast on Monday. A surface front will be
oriented from the Mid-Atlantic coast southwestward across the Gulf
Coast states and into central/southwest TX.

...Southern Rockies/High Plains...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of
the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains in southeast
CO/eastern NM and possibly as far east as western parts of the OK/TX
Panhandles during the late afternoon and evening. A weak shortwave
impulse is expected to move over the southern Rockies while
southerly low-level flow results in modest northward moisture return
within the post-frontal upslope flow regime. Southerly low-level
flow increasing with height and becoming northwesterly above 700 mb
will provide sufficient effective shear for some storm organization.
High-based convection will pose a risk for strong outflow gusts,
with some potential for a forward propagating cluster moving across
eastern NM toward the Panhandles via cold pool/outflow interactions.
Overall modest shear, weak instability and a lack of low-level jet
development will limit overall severe potential, though a couple of
severe storms will be possible.

...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...

A shortwave impulse rotating across the northern Plains/Upper
Midwest within broader upper troughing will support isolated to
scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms within a dry airmass.
Some gusty winds could accompany this activity, but a dearth of
boundary layer moisture and weak instability will preclude severe probabilities.

...Southeast...

Across the Southeast, a very moist airmass will be in place ahead of
the southward sagging surface front. Poor lapse rates will limit
stronger destabilization, but a belt of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is
possible across southern AL/GA into northern FL. Thunderstorm
clusters could produce locally gusty winds, but organized severe
potential will be limited by weak vertical shear, poor lapse rates,
and little large-scale ascent.

..Leitman.. 06/14/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 150450
SWODY2
SPC AC 150448

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest into Lower Michigan.

...Midwest...

A midlevel shortwave trough will migrate east across the Midwest and
Great Lakes on Tuesday. This will support a band of enhanced
midlevel southwesterly flow across portions of WI/IL and into
IN/Lower MI/OH during the afternoon and evening. Cooling aloft will
result in steep midlevel lapse rates and support MLCAPE up to 1500
J/kg. A weak cold front will move across the region during the afternoon/evening, and a band of convection will develop ahead of
this feature. The main limiting factor precluding higher severe
probabilities at this time is the expectation for meager boundary
layer moisture. Surface dewpoints will generally be in the mid/upper
50s to near 60 F. Forecast soundings indicate sufficient deep layer
shear for transient supercells and clusters with a risk for isolated
hail and strong wind gusts.

...Northern Oklahoma vicinity...

Some forecast guidance suggests storms may develop across parts of
northern OK during the late afternoon/early evening as midlevel flow
increases within a strengthening warm advection regime. However,
given a lack of large-scale ascent or focus for thunderstorm
initiation other than strong daytime heating for an increasing moist
airmass, confidence in sustained thunderstorm development is low. If
storms can develop and be maintained, a risk for strong gusts and
isolated hail will be possible. If confidence increases, low
unconditional severe probabilities could be needed.

...Eastern Montana/Western North Dakota...

Strong storms are expected to develop within strong northwesterly
deep layer flow over the Canadian Prairies Tuesday
afternoon/evening. This activity will quickly develop southeast into
MT/ND by late afternoon/evening. Strong heating amid meager
low-level moisture will result in deep boundary layer mixing and
weak instability. Locally gusty winds could accompany this activity.

..Leitman.. 06/15/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 180526
SWODY2
SPC AC 180524

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND FROM NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms may produce gusty winds and hail across the
Upper Midwest. Additional strong thunderstorms may produce damaging
wind gusts from north Texas/southern Oklahoma through portions of
the Gulf Coast states and into the coastal Carolinas.

...Minnesota/Wisconsin...

An upper shortwave trough will migrate across the Upper Midwest on
Friday. This will bring a belt of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft
across the region. In the wake of a prior frontal passage,
boundary-layer moisture will be very modest (generally 50s F
dewpoints), but cool temperatures aloft and midlevel lapse rates
near 7 C/km will support weak destabilization (around 500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE). Forecast soundings show vertically veering wind profiles
and elongated/straight hodographs with around 35-40 kt effective
shear magnitudes. Isolated higher-based supercells will be possible.
Steepened low-level lapse rates and the relatively dry
boundary-layer will support isolated strong gusts. Isolated
marginally severe hail also will be possible.

...ArkLaTex vicinity through the Gulf Coast states...

Most forecast guidance depicts an ongoing MCS across North Texas or
far southern OK at Friday morning. Strong gusts will be possible
with this system through the morning given modestly enhanced
mid/upper flow and a corridor of strong instability across the
ArkLaTex vicinity. This MCS and/or remnant MCV may continue
east/southeast across east TX or toward the lower MS Valley through
the day, tracking along a southward-sagging surface boundary.

Further east across the Gulf Coast vicinity, a very moist airmass
will be in place, with PW values near 2 inches common. This will aid
in moderate destabilization ahead of a west to east oriented surface
boundary. Vertical shear will be weak, but water laden downdrafts
could support isolated microbursts. It is unclear if convection will
be able to organize along the surface boundary into a forward
propagating cluster, but if this occurs, damaging wind potential
would increase.

...Coastal Carolinas...

A mid/upper shortwave trough will move across the area through
afternoon. Some guidance depicts a small MCS or cluster associated
with a strong low-level jet during the morning. As this feature
spreads northeast along the coast through afternoon, strong gusts
will be possible.

...Florida...

A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will reside across
north/central FL on Friday. Parts of the state will be on the
southern fringes of stronger mid-level flow associated with the
upper shortwave trough moving across the Carolinas. Some forecast
soundings show 20-30 kt midlevel low, and this may be sufficient for
transient organized cells along parts of the east coast. Additional
storms will be possible across the Panhandle and northern FL as
convection develops southward across the area ahead of a
southward-sagging surface boundary. Ample moisture/high PW values
and moderate instability will support occasional strong gusts with
the strongest storms.

..Leitman.. 06/18/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)