AWUS01 KWNH 150909
FFGMPD
TXZ000-151507-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0415
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
507 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Areas affected...portions of central, south, and southeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 150907Z - 151507Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues, with locally
significant impacts possible given very high rain rates at times.

Discussion...Earlier frontal, deep convection across central Texas
has evolved into a forward-propagating linear complex that now
extends from near College Station westward to near Uvalde (west of
San Antonio). Radar data suggests that this complex has migrated
southward very slowly -- approximately 50 miles in 6 hours --
while producing widespread heavy rainfall and local impacts
especially near and just east of the I-35 corridor. MRMS Flash
responses are also peaked in these areas and in the Hill Country
west of Austin. Rainfall estimates of 2-8 inches of rainfall have
occurred beneath this complex, which isn't surprising given the
abundantly moist/unstable airmass along the leading edge of the
complex feeding individual updrafts (1500+ J/kg MLCAPE, over 2.3 inch PW).

Current convective trends give no indication of relenting flash
flood potential in the near term. Heavy rain rates have began to
impact more populated areas between Austin and San Antonio along
the I-35 corridor recently, and additional areas of potential
impacts are expected as the complex continues to migrate very
slowly southward. The linear complex should eventually reach south
of I-10 (from San Antonio eastward) over the next 2-4 hours.
Additional flash flood impacts could occur in populated areas
along the Rio Grande Valley (from Uvalde south to Laredo) through
the morning as well. While FFGs to increase to around 3 inch/hr
thresholds with southward extent in many areas south of I-10, the
ongoing complex has still breached those totals overnight on an
isolated to scattered basis. Additional cell mergers from
open-warm-sector convection south of the ongoing MCS could locally
enhance flash flood potential as well.

Flash flooding remains likely, with locally significant impacts
also expected.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31549698 31199522 30219485 29509452 29079515
28709575 28329640 27839714 27229763 26909835
26569878 26709921 27159963 27760002 28970067
29870124 30859850

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