AWUS01 KWNH 161045
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-161642-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0428
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
643 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161042Z - 161642Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to intensify and
grow in number between Slidell LA, portions of southern MS, and
Mobile Bay AL. Hourly rain amounts to 3" with local amounts to 6"
are possible, which could lead to widely scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are growing in coverage
across and just inland of the Central Gulf Coast. Precipitable
water values are 1.8-2.4" per GPS data. An ML CAPE gradient
exists across the region, with a pocket of 1500 J/kg just offshore
Mobile Bay. Effective bulk shear is 25-35 kts, which is leading
to some convective organization.

The mesoscale guidance appears more sparse with convective
coverage than seen in recent radar imagery. Even so, there are
indications in the guidance of increasing coverage with time,
which is also implied in the 06z GFS-based Galvez-Davison index
values rising through the morning and early afternoon. Confluence
at 850 hPa also increases with time. In this environment, hourly
rain amounts to 3" with local amounts of 6" are possible, which
would be most problematic in urban areas and locations with
partially saturated soils. Used the possible category due to the
uncertainty caused by the seemingly dry
mesoscale QPF guidance.

Roth

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31648824 31218649 30468625 30148705 29888831
28968882 28888972 29149094 29919169 30939084

= = =

AWUS01 KWNH 161224
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-161621-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0429
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
823 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Areas affected...Central LA & Southwest MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 161221Z - 161621Z

Summary...Scattered pockets of flash flooding should continue for
the next several hours, with hourly amounts to 3" and local totals
to 6" remaining possible.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms across central LA continue
to show training character as of late, with hourly amounts to 3"
indicated in radar estimates across isolated spots of Vernon and
Rapides Parishes. This is occurring north of a weak thermal
boundary returning northward across southern LA. Despite the
precipitation coverage, which should erode the instability to some
degree, the instability pool appears to have nudged upward
recently. Precipitable water values of 2.4-2.6" exists here per
GPS data. Effective bulk shear of 25-30 kts is helping to
organize the convection. A broad shortwave over portions of OK &
AR appears to be aiding diffluence aloft.

The convective area has been edging southward this morning, which
is in opposition to the instability getting farther north, so
would think this southward nudge would slow down or stop in the
short term, assuming the slight increase an instability continues.
Hourly rain amounts to 3" and addition local totals to 6" remain
possible. Over increasingly saturated soils and urban areas,
scattered spots of flash flooding are expected.

Roth

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31779207 31559082 31089039 30729110 30789366
31719369

$$


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