ACUS02 KWNS 050557
SWODY2
SPC AC 050555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms associated with severe gusts and hail will be
possible across parts of the north-central U.S. on Wednesday.

...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley...
An anticyclonic mid-level flow pattern with rising heights will be
in place across the north-central U.S. on Wednesday, with primarily
westerly flow over the northern Plains. At the surface, a moist
airmass will be located from Nebraska into the Dakotas. Along the
eastern edge of this moist airmass, elevated thunderstorms appear
likely to be ongoing at the start of the period. These storms are
expected to move eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley, as
moderate to strong instability develops further to the west.
Convection may initiate during the afternoon across parts of this
unstable airmass, where low-level convergence is sufficient.
However, convective coverage will likely remain very isolated, due
to a lack of large-scale ascent. Any cell that can develop into a
thunderstorm and persist could have a severe threat, due to the
instability, moderate deep-layer shear and steep low to mid-level
lapse rates. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be the primary
threats. For this outlook, will maintain a Marginal Risk due to the conditionality of the forecast, and due to the expected isolated
nature of the threat.

..Broyles.. 08/05/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 060603
SWODY2
SPC AC 060601

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Wed Aug 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and
evening across the northern Plains. Isolated very large hail and
severe gusts will be the primary threats.

...Northern Plains...
A mid-level shortwave ridge will move eastward across the northern
Plains on Thursday, as southwesterly flow becomes established across
the northern High Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen in
western South Dakota, as a cold front moves southward across western
North Dakota. To the southeast of the front, a moist and unstable
airmass will be in place across most of the northern Plains. Surface
dewpoints across this airmass should be from the mid 60s to the
lower 70s F. Ahead of the front and near the surface low, an axis of
strong instability is forecast to develop over the western Dakotas
by afternoon. Isolated convective initiation will likely take place
near the instability axis and front in the afternoon. Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward across the
northern Plains during the late afternoon and evening. A severe
threat appears likely.

Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21Z are impressive,
with MLCAPE near 5000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, and
700-500 mb lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. This environment will be
favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2
inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense cores. A
potential for severe gusts will also exist, with a greater threat in
the evening if cells can congeal into a short line segment. An
isolated tornado threat could also develop. Any severe threat is
expected to persist into the mid to late evening.

Further to the east-southeastward into Minnesota, and southward into
South Dakota, large-scale ascent is forecast to be weak. For this
reason, convective coverage is forecast to be limited. However,
isolated convection could initiate along zones of low-level
convergence and maximized surface heating. Any cell that could
develop and persist, could obtain an isolated threat for hail and
severe gusts.

...Montana...
A mid-level trough will move eastward across the northern Rockies on
Thursday, as the exit region of an associated jet max moves into the
northern High Plains. The western edge of a moist and unstable
airmass will likely be in place across parts of central Montana,
where model forecast suggest MLCAPE could reach the 1200 to 2500
J/kg range. Convective initiation is expected in the higher terrain
of west-central Montana, and this activity will move eastward into
the stronger instability during the evening. Additional storms
appear likely to develop in northeastern Montana during the mid to
late evening, within an upslope flow regime. In addition to the
instability, moderate to strong deep-layer shear will be in place
over the northern High Plains, mainly due to influence of the
mid-level jet. This environment should be favorable for severe
storms, with large hail and severe gusts possible in the late
afternoon and evening.

..Broyles.. 08/06/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 080527
SWODY2
SPC AC 080525

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday from the Upper
Great Lakes to the Lower Missouri Valley, and across portions of the
central to southern High Plains.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will move slowly eastward across southern SK and MB,
with moderate cyclonic flow aloft moving from the northern Plains
into the upper MS Valley. As this occurs, an upper ridge over the
eastern Great Lakes will be move toward southern QB and the
Northeast. Well south of the upper low, modest westerlies aloft will
remain over the central Rockies.

At the surface, low pressure will move from southern MB into western
ON, with a boundary stalling roughly from the upper MS Valley to KS.
Ahead of this front, a moist and unstable air mass will remain with
60s and 70s F dewpoints.

...IA into WI and surrounding areas...
The leading mid/upper speed max will move across the upper MS Valley
relatively early in the day, with midlevel drying across much of MN
into western WI. Heating will occur near the stalled front, with
robust moisture leading to 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE by late afternoon. Complicating the forecast is the possibility of residual/midday
storms, which could potentially overturn the air mass prematurely.
However, in general, southwest low-level flow should maintain areas
of moderate instability, with a late day increase in storm coverage
and intensity. Corridors of damaging winds appear most probable,
with substantial outflow.

...Central High Plains...
Surface winds will veer to east/southeast during the day, with 50s F
dewpoints backing west toward the Front Range. Steep lapse rates
will lead to strong instability, especially from southeast CO west/northwestward. Isolated cells capable of large hail are
forecast, with perhaps a brief tornado risk during the evening as
low-level SRH increases. Capping and uncertainty in storm coverage
currently precludes higher severe probabilities.

..Jewell.. 08/08/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 090558
SWODY2
SPC AC 090556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
COLORADA ACROSS KANSAS AND INTO PARTS OF MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of eastern
Colorado across southern Kansas and into northern Missouri. Hail may
occur over western areas, with locally strong gusts over eastern
areas.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
On Sunday, a relatively weak and broad upper trough will exist
across the central and northern Plains, with modest southwest flow
aloft averaging 20-35 kt extending from CO/KS into the upper Great
Lakes. While winds aloft will not be particularly strong, 500 mb
temperatures to -10 C will extend as far south as northern NM and
OK.

At the surface, high pressure will exist over much of the
Intermountain West and into the central Plains. A boundary will
stretch roughly from the TX Panhandle into northern MO/IL, with
eastern parts of the boundary associated with early day storm
outflow.

Two primary areas of isolated severe potential will exist. One will
be from northern MO into eastern KS, south of the composite front
and where daytime heating and 70s F dewpoints will lead to over 3000
J/kg MUCAPE, with lightly veering winds with height. The result will
be evolving/propagating areas of storms with locally strong wind
gusts during late afternoon and into the evening as southerly winds
increase at 850 mb.

The other area will be along the Front Range during the late
afternoon, and extending east/southeast near the boundary into
southern KS. Here, easterly surface winds in the post-frontal regime
over CA and cool temperatures aloft combined with 30 kt midlevel southwesterlies may favor initial cells with hail. With time,
activity should aggregate outflows with sporadic severe gusts
possibly into KS or parts of the OK/TX Panhandles.

..Jewell.. 08/09/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 100555
SWODY2
SPC AC 100554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A few marginally severe storms will be possible Monday from late
afternoon through the evening, centered over the southern Texas
Panhandle and South Plains. Scattered notable storms may also occur
over parts of North Dakota into northern Minnesota.

...Southern High Plains to the Lower MO Valley...
Relatively cool midlevel temperatures will remain over the Plains,
with 20-25 kt midlevel westerlies. At the surface, a moist axis will
extend roughly from the eastern TX Panhandle into MO, with northeast
surface winds from KS into northwest TX early.

As heating occurs, low-level winds should veer to east/southeast,
with around 2000 J/kg MUCAPE developing by peak heating. Storms are
likely to develop from northeast NM into TX as the air mass will be
uncapped. Directional wind change with height will support a few
longer-lived cells producing hail. A few aggregate clusters may also
produce locally severe gusts through early evening.

...ND into northern MN...
A speed max will dive southeastward out of SK and MT, with midlevel
vorticity maximum spread across ND and northwest MN late in the day.
This will occur at a time of peak heating near a surface trough
which will be draped NE to SW across the area. Given the focus for
ascent and uncapped air mass, scattered storms will develop beneath
the cool temperatures aloft. Despite limited moisture, a few cells
may produce primarily small hail and locally strong gusts.

..Jewell.. 08/10/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 101720
SWODY2
SPC AC 101718

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND
NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms accompanied by at least some risk for severe
wind and hail may impact parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas
South Plains, as well as parts of eastern North Dakota into
northwestern Minnesota, late Monday afternoon and evening.

...Discussion...
While the westerlies generally remain confined to the higher
latitudes, one significant embedded short wave trough is forecast to
continue digging southeast of the Canadian Prairies through the
international border vicinity, to the west of the Great Lakes,
during this period. It appears that this will be accompanied by one
initial surge of cooler/drier boundary layer air across much of the
Dakotas and portions of the Upper Midwest/adjacent Great Lakes
region by late Monday night.

Otherwise, weak mid-level troughing likely will linger across much
of the remainder of the interior U.S., to the east of the Rockies,
between large-scale mean ridging centered offshore of both the
Pacific and Atlantic coasts. An associated weak surface frontal
zone, still reinforced by convective outflow in some locations, is
likely to linger across the Great Lakes through lower Missouri
Valley and Texas South Plains into early Monday, before generally
continuing to weaken through the period.

Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content probably will be
maintained ahead of the stalled/slow moving remnant front, across
much of the Southwest, as well as in a corridor along and to the
north it. Some of this moisture across the lower/middle Missouri
Valley may begin to advect northward ahead of the lead reinforcing
cool intrusion late Monday into Monday night.

...Southern Great Plains into Great Lakes...
The seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content, along/just
north of the weakening front, may provide support for the
development of moderate to locally higher CAPE with insolation
Monday. As this occurs, it appears that a number of convectively
generated or augmented perturbations within the generally weak
southwesterly deep-layer mean flow could contribute to scattered
thunderstorm development during and after peak heating. Some of this
could pose a risk for localized potentially damaging wind gusts, but
the coverage of any such activity still seems likely to remain
rather sparse in nature.

One possible exception may develop along a modifying segment of the
boundary across parts of east central New Mexico into the Texas
South Plains by late Monday afternoon or evening, beneath steeper
mid-level lapse rates associated with the remnants of a plume of
warm elevated mixed-layer air. There appears a general consensus
within the various model output that a digging short wave impulse,
within a weak northwesterly mid-level regime, may provide support
for a relatively notable upscale growing/southeastward propagating
thunderstorm cluster.

Farther northeast, the NAM, perhaps more so than other model output,
suggests that a notable MCV may emerge from Sunday night convection
over the central Great Plains, before slowly migrating across the
lower Missouri Valley toward the Great Lakes Monday through Monday
night. It is possible that a perturbation of the strength suggested
by the NAM could, at some point, support another notable evolving
cluster with potential to produce strong wind gusts. At this point,
however, the potential for this still seems low, with too much
uncertainty to introduce 5 percent probabilities without unduly
large false alarm area.

...Northern Great Plains...
A moistening boundary-layer, aided by evapotranspiration and perhaps
the onset of better low-level moisture return on strengthening
southerly low-level flow, may contribute to moderate CAPE within a
corridor of stronger pre-frontal surface heating by late afternoon.
Coupled with strengthening deep-layer mean wind fields and shear,
downstream of a digging 50+ kt 500 mb jet, it appears that the
environment may become conducive to vigorous convective development
capable of producing small to marginally severe hail and strong
surface gusts. Potential for gusts approaching or exceeding severe
limits appears highest during the late afternoon and early evening
across parts of eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota,
where warm, unsaturated low-level thermodynamic profiles with steep
lapse rates will aid downward momentum transfer via enhanced melting
and evaporative cooling in downdrafts.

..Kerr.. 08/10/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 110532
SWODY2
SPC AC 110531

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN
WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the upper Great
Lakes region Tuesday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
The main feature of interest will be a shortwave trough moving
across the upper MS Valley and across the Great Lakes, with
attendant cold front pushing east across Upper MI and WI through
00Z. Modest instability and lift along the front will likely result
in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over these areas.

While lapse rates will remain poor aloft, the combination of
strengthening deep-layer shear and frontal passage near peak heating
may yield a few stronger storms within an expected line across
eastern WI. Mean wind speeds in the lowest 3km will not be very
strong, nor will the mixed boundary layer be particularly deep.
However, isolated damaging gusts or marginal hail may occur as
cooling aloft overspreads the warmed air mass late.

Elsewhere, scattered storms will occur over the Southern Plains
beneath a weak midlevel disturbance, and over parts of the Midwest
and Southeast where low-level moisture will favor sporadic afternoon development.

..Jewell.. 08/11/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 120529
SWODY2
SPC AC 120528

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
The evolution of an organized cluster of thunderstorms accompanied
by strong to severe wind gusts appears possible across parts of
central through eastern South Dakota by Wednesday evening.

...Discussion...
As a low-amplitude shortwave trough progresses over the northern
Rockies, a surface low will develop into southern SK, with a
secondary low into western SD late in the day. Southerly low-level
winds will develop over the Plains, with increasing 850 mb winds of
40-50 kt overnight from NE into SD.

Initially, the air mass will be relatively dry. However, a plume of
60s F dewpoints will materialize across the mid MO Valley, with
strong heating over the High Plains a near the surface trough.

Storms may develop near 00Z over parts of SD near the Black Hills
and near the surface low/lapse rate plume, with an initial hail
risk. With time, storms should produce strong outflow, with a few
severe gusts possible. Due to limited moisture, capping will become
a mitigating factor after 00Z, and may preclude a more robust MCS.
As such, a Marginal Risk remains valid for primarily isolated severe
activity withing the broader zone of convection.

..Jewell.. 08/12/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 130552
SWODY2
SPC AC 130550

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms producing hail and wind are possible mainly from
eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota Thursday afternoon and
evening. Isolated severe storms may occur across parts of South
Dakota into western Nebraska.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move eastward across the northern Plains on
Thursday, with the primary upper low well north into Canada. The
southern periphery of this wave will move across ND and northern MN
late day and overnight, with minimal cooling aloft and increasing
mid to upper level winds of 40-50 kt.

At the surface, a trough will extend from central ND into western SD
during the afternoon, where a surface low will exist within the warm
plume. Southeast winds will bring moisture northward ahead of the
front, with moderate instability forecast. Effective shear of 40-50
kt will develop late as the upper wave approaches and low-level jet
increases to 30-40 kt.

Storms are likely to form near 00Z along the cold front over
central/eastern ND and extending into northern SD, and progress
across northwest MN during the evening. Large hail appears likely as
storm mode should be cellular, but areas of severe gusts may occur.
Steep lapse rates aloft and strong instability may also yield hail
over 2.00" diameter. Strong heating into central SD and western NE
will likely yield isolated strong to severe storms as well with
brief hail and locally strong gusts.

..Jewell.. 08/13/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 140541
SWODY2
SPC AC 140539

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
At least isolated severe storms may occur over parts of the northern
Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday.

...Synopsis......
An upper low will move from Manitoba toward Hudson Bay on Friday,
with minor height rises over the northern Plains as the upper trough
departs to north. An upper high will build over central Plains to
lower MO Valley, while weak troughiness persists over the Great Basin.

At the surface, a cold front from northern MN toward the ND/SD
border will bring drying, but will stall late in the day. A large
area of instability will develop over much of SD, MN, WI, IA and NE
as dewpoints increase, and easterly surface winds will bring
moisture westward across SD and into southeast MT and northeast WY.

...Eastern SD into MN and western WI...
Storms are expected to form relatively early in the day in a warm
advection regime with southwest 850 mb winds of 30-40 kt. This
regime may favor clusters of storms with localized severe gust
potential. Modest shear could favor a few longer-lived storm cores
producing hail as well. Overall predictability is low given the
initiation regime and possibility of early day storms in the area.

...Black Hills and Vicinity...
Substantial easterly low-level flow will develop during the day as
winds back from northeast to east/southeast. This will push 60s
dewpoints as far west as southeast MT/northeast WY, beneath 30+ kt
midlevel westerly winds. This will result in elongated, straight
hodographs favorable for cellular storms producing large hail. While
storms may be quite isolated, hail could be damaging.

..Jewell.. 08/14/2025
$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 161728
SWODY2
SPC AC 161727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN CONUS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly during the late
afternoon and evening Sunday from the Upper Midwest to the northern
High Plains. Isolated damaging winds are possible on Sunday
afternoon to early evening across the Northeast and New England.

...Upper Midwest...
Decaying convective swaths will likely be ongoing at 12Z Sunday,
centered on the eastern Dakotas to southern MN. The eastern lobe of
this morning activity will aid in strengthening the quasi-stationary
baroclinic zone, as differential boundary-layer heating occurs
across it through the day. Presence of mid to upper ridging
emanating north-northeast from the southern Great Plains anticyclone
will remain a limiting factor to more robust severe potential.
Still, drifting MCVs across the Dakotas in a modest southwesterly
flow regime in conjunction with large buoyancy in the warm-moist
sector should aid in scattered late-afternoon thunderstorm
development. This appears most probable in the eastern SD to
southwest MN vicinity, with isolated coverage trailing into central
NE. A mix of isolated severe hail/wind initially should transition
to mainly sporadic strong to severe gusts through the evening as
slow-moving clusters/MCSs develop. A brief tornado is also possible
with any transient supercell structures near the front.

...Northern High Plains...
Primary severe potential should emanate out of late afternoon
convection initiating off the higher terrain of southern MT and
separately in the Black Hills vicinity. A modest combination of
deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent suggests mainly a strong to
isolated severe threat should be expected as high-based convection
spreads northeast across eastern MT. The presence of weak
surface/low-level should modulate the eastern extent of severe
potential on Sunday evening.

...Northeast/New England...
A shortwave trough will progress across the St. Lawrence Valley
towards the Canadian Maritimes and northern New England through
Sunday afternoon. A cold front will push southeastward through the
day with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms expected along
it during the afternoon. Buoyancy appears likely to be weak and will
remain a limiting factor to more robust severe potential. More
favorable deep-layer shear will exist in New England where localized
damaging winds and small hail should be favored. Farther southwest,
multicell clustering should be dominant with isolated damaging winds
from sporadic strong gusts.

..Grams.. 08/16/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 170536
SWODY2
SPC AC 170534

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and hail
will be possible on Monday over parts of the central and northern
Plains eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley and western Great
Lakes.

...Central and Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...
At mid-levels, a ridge will build over the northern Plains on
Monday, as flow over much of the north-central U.S. remains from the west-northwest. At the surface, a post-frontal airmass will be in
place over much of the central and eastern Dakotas. Along the
southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability
will likely develop by afternoon from parts of eastern Montana
southeastward into Nebraska. Large-scale ascent will likely remain
limited over much of the region, helping to keep convective
development isolated. Although deep-layer shear should remain below
35 knots in most areas, low to mid-level lapse rates will be steep.
This could be enough for a marginal severe threat, mainly in the
late afternoon and early evening. Severe wind gusts and hail will be
the primary threats.

...Upper Mississippi Valley/Western Great Lakes...
A subtle mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward
into the upper Mississippi Valley on Monday afternoon. To the east
of the trough, moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop
from central Iowa eastward into northern Illinois. The greatest
convective coverage is expected to develop further to the north
across parts of Wisconsin, where instability will be weaker but
deep-layer shear will be greater. The combination of instability and
deep-layer shear across Wisconsin could be sufficient for a marginal wind-damage threat during the late afternoon and early evening. This
threat, along with a potential for hail could extend southwestward
into central Iowa where strong instability is forecast.

..Broyles.. 08/17/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 180555
SWODY2
SPC AC 180553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is not expected across the continental U.S. on
Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level ridge will build northward across the central Rockies
and northern High Plains on Tuesday, as a subtle shortwave trough
moves through the Great Lakes region. At the surface, a cold front
will advance southward into the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys,
extending westward into the southern Plains. As surface temperatures
warm during the day, low-level convergence near the front will be
favorable for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development.
Limited large-scale ascent and weak deep-layer shear will be
unfavorable for severe storms. Further northwest into the
north-central states, moderate instability will be possible by
Tuesday afternoon, mainly in the Dakotas. However, a severe threat
is not expected due to limited large-scale ascent, minimal low-level convergence, and weak deep-layer shear. Elsewhere across the
continental U.S., a severe threat is not expected Tuesday and
Tuesday night.

..Broyles.. 08/18/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 190541
SWODY2
SPC AC 190539

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday in the late
afternoon and early evening across northern North Dakota and far
northeast Montana.

...Northern North Dakota/Far Northeast Montana...
A mid-level ridge, extending from a large high centered on the Four
Corners region, will move eastward across the northern Plains on
Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward
across southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba during the day.
Ahead of the front, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to
develop by afternoon from southwestern Manitoba into east-central
North Dakota. Thunderstorm development will be likely near the front
in far southern Canada, with additional more isolated storms
possible near the instability axis in east-central North Dakota.
Model forecasts suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 3000 to 4000
J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 30 knots. This may be enough
for a marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be
possible, mainly during the late afternoon and early evening.

..Broyles.. 08/19/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 200557
SWODY2
SPC AC 200556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO PARTS OF MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated severe threat is expected to develop Thursday into
Thursday night over parts of the Dakotas into Minnesota, with severe
gusts and hail possible.

...Northern Plains into parts of MN...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to evolve into a
deep-layer cyclone as it moves eastward across parts of the Canadian
Prairies on Thursday. A trailing cold front will move through the
Dakotas and northwest MN, with a weak frontal wave potentially
developing across SD. Diurnal heating of a relatively moist airmass
will result in moderate to locally strong destabilization by late
afternoon.

An embedded mid/upper-level shortwave trough and associated remnant
convection is expected to move across MB/ND and northern MN early in
the day. In the wake of this shortwave, large-scale ascent is
expected to be generally weak until later Thursday night, resulting
in uncertainty regarding afternoon/evening storm development.
Isolated storm development cannot be ruled out near the front, and
potentially near the weak surface low across SD. An increase in
storm coverage is expected late Thursday night, as somewhat stronger
midlevel height falls and upper-level difluence overspread the
region.

The strongest mid/upper-level flow will tend to lag behind the
front, but deep-layer shear will still be sufficient for some storm organization, including conditional supercell potential. The
Marginal Risk has been maintained with this outlook, but greater
severe probabilities may eventually be needed, depending on trends
regarding storm coverage and timing from parts of the Dakotas into
northwest MN.

Other strong storms may develop Thursday night across parts of the
northern High Plains, within a favorably sheared post-frontal
regime. Severe probabilities may eventually need to be expanded
westward, if confidence increases in a favored post-frontal
corridor.

...Coastal NC...
The center of Hurricane Erin is forecast by NHC to remain well
offshore of coastal NC on Thursday as it begins moving
northeastward. However, the western periphery of Erin's large wind
field will result in rather strong deep-layer northerly flow across
the Outer Banks and vicinity. If modest diurnal heating can occur,
then showers and possibly a few weak storms may develop during the
afternoon, though it is uncertain if any such development would be
sufficiently vigorous to support convectively augmented gusts.

...Parts of the Southeast/southern Appalachians...
Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the
Southeast and southern Appalachians vicinity Thursday afternoon.
Deep-layer shear will remain quite weak, but northerly low-midlevel
flow may support one or more southward-moving clusters. Poor
midlevel lapse rates will tend to limit updraft intensity, and the
organized severe threat appears low, but localized tree damage could
accompany these storms during the afternoon and early evening.

...Arizona...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop Thursday afternoon and evening
across parts of AZ, initially near the higher terrain. Isolated
strong gusts could accompany these storms. With an amplified
upper-level ridge anchored near the Four Corners, midlevel flow will
generally be easterly across central/southern AZ. The easterly
steering flow and a very hot and well-mixed environment could
support a threat of strong outflow gusts into the lower elevations,
though it is uncertain if storm coverage will be sufficient for
larger-scale outflow development and more than very isolated
damaging-wind potential.

..Dean.. 08/20/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 210600
SWODY2
SPC AC 210558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible Friday from
parts of the central and northern High Plains into the Upper
Midwest.

...Northern/central High Plains into the Upper Midwest...
A mid/upper-level cyclone and attendant surface low is forecast to
move eastward across parts of MB and northwest ON Friday. An
outflow-influenced surface boundary may drift southeastward across
the central Plains into the Upper Midwest during the day, while a
strong trailing cold front begins to move across the Dakotas and
northern MN.

The greatest relative confidence in diurnal storm development is
within the post-frontal regime across parts of eastern WY/CO. Steep
midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and relatively elongated
hodographs will support potential for strong to potential severe
storm development, initially near the higher terrain. Isolated hail
and locally gusty winds could accompany the strongest cells. While
uncertain, there is some potential for storm clustering during the
evening, which could result in some severe potential spreading into
parts of western NE and perhaps northwest KS Friday night.

Farther east, confidence is low regarding the details of convective
evolution from central/eastern NE/SD into the Upper Midwest. In
general, a zone of moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg
(locally higher), is expected to develop by afternoon near/north of
the leading surface boundary, and ahead of the trailing cold front.
Gradually strengthening midlevel flow is forecast to provide
modestly favorable effective shear (25-35 kt).

There may be some potential for early-day convection to intensify as
it moves through a destabilizing environment during the afternoon.
Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered storm development will be
possible during the afternoon/evening within the zone of favorable moisture/instability, with a threat of locally damaging gusts and
isolated hail.

...Arizona...
Similar to D1/Thursday, scattered storm development will be possible
Friday afternoon across higher terrain areas of AZ, with easterly
flow potentially steering storms (or at least their remnant
outflows) into the lower deserts with time. Isolated damaging wind
cannot be ruled out with this activity, given the presence of a hot
and well-mixed environment, though it remains uncertain if more
substantial storm clustering and outflow consolidation will evolve
during the evening.

..Dean.. 08/21/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 220558
SWODY2
SPC AC 220557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The potential for severe storms is low across the continental U.S.
for Saturday or Saturday night.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward through the western
Great Lakes on Saturday, as a cold front advances southeastward
across the mid Mississippi Valley and central Plains. As surface
temperatures warm during the day, isolated thunderstorm development
will be possible near the front. Instability is expected to remain
weak along and ahead of the front, which should keep any severe
potential low. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., no severe
threat is expected.

..Broyles.. 08/22/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 230617
SWODY2
SPC AC 230615

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern
Colorado into western Kansas Sunday afternoon and evening.

...Eastern Colorado/Western Kansas...
A mid-level large-scale trough will dig southeastward into the
eastern U.S. on Sunday, as northwesterly flow remains over much of
the central and northern U.S. At the surface, an area of high
pressure will move southward across the Great Plains. A slow-moving
front will remain in place in eastern Colorado along the western
periphery of the surface high. Elevated thunderstorms are expected
to develop well to the east of the boundary across parts of western
Kansas Sunday morning. Closer to the boundary itself, moderate
instability is forecast to develop during the day across the eastern
third of Colorado. As surface heating takes place and as low-level
convergence increases near the boundary, scattered surface-based
convection initiation is expected during the afternoon. This
convection is forecast to increase in coverage during the late
afternoon, being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a
subtle shortwave trough moving through the central Plains. The
storms are expected to move southeastward across eastern Colorado
into southwest Kansas, with a few storms continuing into the early
to mid evening. NAM forecast soundings in the vicinity of the
instability axis around 21Z have MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg, with 0-6 km
shear around 40 knots. This combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of
7 to 7.5 C/km may be enough for isolated severe storms. A potential
will exist for a supercell or two. Hail and marginally severe wind
gusts will be the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 08/23/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 240534
SWODY2
SPC AC 240533

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The potential for severe storms is low across the continental U.S.
on Monday and Monday night.

...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will be in place across much of
the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. on Monday. At the surface, a
large area of high pressure will remain in place from the Great
Plains eastward to the Appalachians. Along this southern periphery
of this airmass, post-frontal storms will be possible across parts
of the central High Plains and southern Plains Monday afternoon.
Within this airmass, any instability that develops is forecast to
remain weak, suggesting that the potential for severe storms is low.
Elsewhere across the continental U.S., a severe threat is not
expected Monday and Monday night.

..Broyles.. 08/24/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 250541
SWODY2
SPC AC 250540

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. on
Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, a large-scale trough will move across the eastern
U.S. on Tuesday, as northwesterly flow remains over much of the
central states. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will
be anchored over much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation.
Within this post-frontal airmass, surface dewpoints are expected to
be in the 60s over much of Texas and Louisiana. During the day as
surface temperatures warm, thunderstorms will be possible over parts
of the southern Plains and Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms will
also be possible over parts of the southern and central Rockies. In
these areas, instability is forecast to remain very weak, suggesting
the severe potential will be limited.

..Broyles.. 08/25/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 260556
SWODY2
SPC AC 260554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The potential for severe storms appears to be low across the
continental U.S. tomorrow (Wednesday). A few stronger storms are
possible across parts of the Upper Midwest and Colorado Front Range.

...Synopsis...
Broad upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S., with an
embedded impulse ejecting into the Atlantic as a second impulse
impinges on the Great Lakes. An upper ridge will persist over the
Southwest while a weak mid-level cut-off low meanders across the
Pacific Northwest. A surface high will become established east of
the MS River, with low-level moisture poised to pivot around the
surface high and advect northward across the Plains into the Great
Lakes region, with scattered thunderstorms expected. Scattered
thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the High
Plains during the afternoon given lee surface troughing, with
elevated thunderstorms continuing into the central Plains overnight
within a warm-air advection regime. The best chance for any strong
storms would be over portions of the Colorado Front Range and the
Upper Midwest, where an overlap of marginally favorable shear and
instability may exist.

...Parts of the Upper Midwest...
The second impulse pivoting around the broader upper trough over the
Great Lakes will promote an organized round of thunderstorms within
a deep-layer northwesterly flow regime. Modest mid-level lapse rates
will overspread low 60s F dewpoints, resulting in up to 1200 J/kg of
thin MLCAPE across extreme eastern SD toward the MN/IA border.
Modest veering flow with height will encourage 25-35 kts of
effective bulk shear as well. As such, a few strong storms with
sub-severe wind and hail are possible around afternoon peak heating.

...Colorado Front Range...
Upslope low-level flow across the central High Plains will support
60+ f surface dewpoints to advect northwestward toward the Colorado
Front Range. Here, increasing westerly flow with height will support
some speed shear, evident in forecast soundings as relatively
straight hodographs. Lapse rates are expected to be poor (i.e.
around 6.5 C/km), with MLCAPE peaking around 1000 J/kg via thin
profiles. A few of the stronger storms may produce some wind and
hail, but these hazards are currently expected to remain generally
below severe limits.

..Squitieri.. 08/26/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 270554
SWODY2
SPC AC 270552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms, with an isolated severe wind and hail threat,
are possible across parts of the southern Plains into the Arklatex
tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as an upper
ridge builds across the southern High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). A
mid-level impulse will rotate around the upper trough and traverse
the southern Plains/Southeast through the period, encouraging the
southward sagging of a surface cold front. Multiple rounds of
thunderstorms are likely across portions of the southern Plains into
the Arklatex ahead of this front. The best chance for stronger
thunderstorms will be during the afternoon, where storms will
benefit from an optimal combination of modest buoyancy and vertical
wind shear.

...Southern High Plains into the Arklatex...
An MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere
along the eastern fringes of the southern Plains. An outflow
boundary is expected to sag southward, in tandem with or just ahead
of the aforementioned cold front, acting as a source of lift to
rejuvenate thunderstorm activity with afternoon heating. Surface
temperatures will warm into the 90s F amid upper 60s to 70 F surface
dewpoints, yielding over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Southwesterly surface
winds, veering to northwesterly while strengthening with height,
will support 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear. Any storms that
redevelop along the aforementioned outflow boundary in this
environment could become strong, from central OK to the AR/LA
border. A few of the more intense storms may be accompanied by an
isolated severe wind/hail threat, warranting the introduction of
Category 1/Marginal risk probabilities.

..Squitieri.. 08/27/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 280551
SWODY2
SPC AC 280549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SABINE RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across southeast Texas
into southwest Louisiana, and over parts of the central/southern
High Plains tomorrow (Friday).

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will meander over New England while upper ridging
prevails across the western and central U.S. tomorrow (Friday).
Surface high pressure will dominate the MS/OH Valley regions while a
lee surface trough encourages moisture return across the western
Gulf Coastal region into the southern and central High Plains.
Multiple weak mid-level perturbations will traverse the upper ridge,
serving as foci for thunderstorm development during the afternoon.
Given a combination of at least marginal overlapping shear and
instability over the High Plains to the Sabine River Valley, a
couple of thunderstorms may approach severe limits.

...Sabine River Valley...
Multicellular convection, perhaps in the form of an MCS, will be
ongoing at the start of the period, and likely weakening through the
morning hours. This convection will leave behind an outflow boundary
that will serve as the impetus for renewed convective development as
the boundary layer warms during the afternoon. Surface temperatures
will warm into the upper 80s F amid low 70s F dewpoints, yielding
over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear will not be particularly
strong, with modest veering profiles contributing to 25 kts of
effective bulk shear. Multicells will redevelop off of the outflow
boundary, and will pose a risk for a couple of severe gusts by
afternoon peak heating.

...Central and Southern High Plains...
A mid-level impulse will traverse the central Rockies by afternoon
peak heating, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms,
which will move off of the higher terrain over eastern CO/northeast
NM. These storms will mature in an environment characterized by
modest mid-level lapse rates and deep-layer shear, especially as
they approach the CO/NE/KS border by afternoon peak heating. MLCAPE
may exceed 2000 J/kg amid elongated hodographs and 35 kts of
effective bulk shear. Both multicells and occasional supercells will
be the primary storm modes, accompanied by threats for isolated
severe wind and hail.

..Squitieri.. 08/28/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 290600
SWODY2
SPC AC 290558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms are possible across the southern and central
Plains tomorrow (Saturday).

...Synopsis...
Mid-level troughs will meander along the East and West Coasts while
an upper ridge builds over the Interior West and a small mid-level
trough traverses the Plains tomorrow (Saturday). While surface high
pressure and associated stable conditions will overspread the MS
Valley and much of the Interior West, surface lee troughing will
support low-level moisture over the Plains states, along with
thunderstorm chances.

...High Plains into the southern and central Plains...
Deep-layer ascent from a glancing low-amplitude mid-level
perturbation, along with afternoon peak heating, will encourage
scattered thunderstorm development across the central/southern
Plains states. Both non-convection-allowing and convection-allowing
guidance members show multiple thunderstorm clusters organizing from
eastern CO into western TX, OK and KS during the late afternoon to
early overnight hours. These storms will benefit from modest lapse
rates atop mid 60s F surface dewpoints, yielding 1000-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE. Forecast soundings show gradual veering winds with height,
contributing to modestly curved/elongated hodographs. As such,
transient supercells and multicellular clusters will be the main
storm modes, with some clusters potentially organizing into one or
more MCSs overnight. The current thinking is that sub-severe
wind/hail will occur with the stronger storms. While a couple
instances of severe wind/hail are possible, low confidence in a more
precise location of severe hazards precludes the introduction of
probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri.. 08/29/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 300550
SWODY2
SPC AC 300548

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out in the southern Plains
tomorrow (Sunday).

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while an upper ridge
builds over the Interior West tomorrow (Sunday). A northwesterly
mid-level flow regime will become established across the central
U.S., atop surface lee troughing, which will encourage continued
low-level moisture advection across the Plains. A mid-level impulse
will traverse the central Plains during the day, serving as a
lifting source, in addition to afternoon heating, to support at
least scattered thunderstorm development across the central and
southern Plains. 5.5-6.6 C/km mid-level lapse rates will support
meager instability amid modest vertical wind shear. The stronger
storms across the central and southern Plains may be accompanied by
a sub-severe wind/hail threat, with the chances of severe appearing
too low to warrant the addition of probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 08/30/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 010551
SWODY2
SPC AC 010550

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Mon Sep 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
northern Plains into the Upper Midwest tomorrow (Tuesday).

...Synopsis...
Broad cyclonic mid-level flow will persist along the Eastern
Seaboard while upper ridging continues west of the Rockies, with the
central U.S. placed under a northwesterly upper-flow regime tomorrow
(Tuesday). A large and pronounced embedded mid-level shortwave will
quickly translate southeastward from Canada and overspread the Upper
MS Valley through the day, encouraging a surface cold front to surge
southward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
Thunderstorms will develop ahead of the cold front, a few of which
may be severe.

...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest...
Preceding the cold front will be a warm and seasonally moist
airmass, overspread by 6.5-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, yielding
MLCAPE peaking in the 1500-2000 J/kg range by afternoon.
Strengthening northwest flow with height will also yield modestly
curved and elongated hodographs and 35+ kts of speed/effective bulk
shear. These conditions will favor the development of multicells and
perhaps a transient supercell with the stronger updrafts that manage
to form ahead of the cold front. Isolated severe gusts or instances
of hail are plausible, warranting the introduction of Category
1/Marginal risk severe probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 09/01/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 030554
SWODY2
SPC AC 030553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
TENNESSEE NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from east
Tennessee northward to the US-Canadian border across northern New
York on Thursday, accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging
wind gusts.

... Synopsis ...

A highly amplified midlevel pattern will continue through
Thursday/Day-2 as a large ridge pushes north through western Canada
and a downstream trough persists across much of the eastern United
States. Within this amplified pattern, a seasonably cold midlevel
low will exist across Ontario, with multiple lobes of vorticity
rotating around the low. One such vorticity lobe/shortwave trough
will move east across the Great Lakes bringing with it increasing
ascent across portions of the eastern US.

At the surface, a cold front associated with the midlevel shortwave
trough will stretch through the Plains east-northeast into the lower
Great Lakes at the start of the forecast period. This cold front
will make slow progress southward across the Plains and faster
progress east across the eastern Great Lakes region.

... East Tennessee northward into Upstate New York ...

Seasonable moisture will be in place across the region ahead of the
advancing surface cold front. Diurnal heating of this airmass should
result in pockets of most-unstable CAPE up to 1500 J/kg to develop
by early afternoon across southern portions of the region to perhaps
750 J/kg across northern portions of the area.

Thunderstorms, or their remnants, ongoing across portions of eastern
Ohio and western Pennsylvania at the start of the period, should weaken/dissipate through the morning as they move east. These
showers/storms or their outflow may provide potential foci for
thunderstorm development/intensification during the afternoon. To
the west, increasing large scale ascent associated with the
shortwave trough and low-level convergence along the surface cold
front should support additional bands of thunderstorms.

The best thermodynamics will reside across Tennessee and adjacent
areas, with the best deep-layer shear displaced to the north across
northern Pennsylvania and New York. However, the joint distribution
of forecast profiles of shear and buoyancy should favor thunderstorm organization into small multicell clusters or small linear segments,
with the strongest of these capable of some damaging wind potential.

..Marsh.. 09/03/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 040602
SWODY2
SPC AC 040600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM
NORTHERN TEXAS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN OHIO...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms will be possible from the southern Plains into
the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys during the afternoon into the
overnight hours. Isolated large hail and damaging winds may be
possible with the strongest storms.

... Synopsis ...

A seasonably strong/cold midlevel low will persist across Ontario,
with an attendant larger-scale trough persisting across much of the
eastern United States. A potent midlevel shortwave trough will be
across the Upper Great Lakes at the start of the period and will
quickly rotate around the upper low into Quebec through the period.
In its wake a midlevel ribbon of higher vorticity will be left
behind from Iowa northeast across Michigan. Upstream from this, the
midlevel height field will begin to respond to another shortwave
trough rotating around the Ontario low.

At the surface, a surface low will quickly lift northeast from
northern Michigan through Ontario and into Quebec through the
forecast period. A cold from will extend southwest from this low and
will push south and east as the surface low lifts northeast.
Although somewhat diffuse initially, the temperature gradient across
the cold front will rapidly strengthen through the day.

... Ohio and Tennessee Valleys ...

Diurnal heating should allow afternoon temperatures to warm into the
80Fs and 90Fs across the region. Given surface dewpoint temperatures
in the mid 60Fs perhaps as far north as southern Ohio, this heating
will result in most-unstable CAPE values in excess of 2000 J/kg
across the area. The region will also be on the periphery of the
stronger midlevel flow, yield effective shear of around 40 knots.

Thunderstorms should develop by late afternoon in response to
increasing large-scale ascent associated with both differential
vorticity advection and frontal circulations. Given the degree of
instability and effective layer shear, initial thunderstorms may
exhibit supercellular structures. However, given the
temperature-dewpoint spreads on the order of 20F+ the expectation is
that thunderstorms should tend to favor upscale growth toward linear
segments. As such, thunderstorms may initially pose a hail threat,
especially across western Kentucky and Tennessee, but should
transition to more of a wind threat with eastward extent.

Across portions of Kentucky and southern Ohio, a short-window,
conditional tornado threat may evolve as thunderstorms develop in
the vicinity of the surface boundary. As thunderstorms interact with
or cross over the boundary, strong northeasterly surface winds will
enlarge low-level hodographs supporting at least some tornado threat.

... Greater Arklatex Region ...

The surface cold front across the region is expected to strengthen
during the day as it slowly moves south. During the evening into the
overnight hours, strong warm-air advection on the nose of a
strengthening low-level jet may support thunderstorm development on
the cool side of the cold front. Despite surface temperatures in the
60Fs and low 70Fs, steep mid-level lapse rates atop the colder
surface layer may support isolated large hail.

..Marsh.. 09/04/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 050553
SWODY2
SPC AC 050551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms will pose primarily a
risk of damaging wind gusts across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into
New England on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
Troughing will remain across the Midwest into the Northeast on
Saturday. A cold front along/near the Appalachians will make
eastward progress through the day. Severe potential will focus along
and ahead of this front depending on where destabilization can
occur. Another shortwave trough will move through northern
California into the Northwest.

...Mid-Atlantic into New England...
A surface cold front in the general vicinity of the Appalachians
will be the focus for potential afternoon thunderstorm development.
The timing of this feature remains uncertain in guidance. This
timing, along with cloud cover associated with the Great Lakes
trough, will play a large role in where destabilization can occur
during the afternoon.

Confidence in storm coverage is higher with northward extent given
the better mid-level ascent across southern New England. However,
this area also may have greater cloud cover concerns. Even so, there
are models that show temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s F.
Should these warmer temperatures occur, there will likely be a
narrow corridor of greater severe potential from southern New
England into northern portions of the Mid-Atlantic region.
Strong/damaging winds would be the primary hazard as convection
mixes down the stronger 850 mb winds. Mid-level lapse rates will be
rather poor, though long hodographs could promote marginally severe
hail in any discrete storms that can develop and persist. Discrete
modes will likely be short-lived given the deep-layer flow parallel
to the cold front.

Farther south into the Piedmont, surface heating and buoyancy will
be greater. Shear will eventually taper off with southern extent.
However, mid-level ascent will be weaker with near neutral mid-level
height tendencies. Storm coverage may end up tied to locally greater
ascent from a subtle shortwave/MCV. Isolated wind damage would be
possible with the strongest storms.

...Northwest...
A compact shortwave trough should move through Oregon, favorably
timed with peak diurnal heating. Widely scattered to scattered
storms will be possible. Temperatures of around -13 to -15 C at 500
mb will support at least low-end buoyancy. The primary uncertainty
with regard to severe potential will be the quality of low-level
moisture. Most models suggest strong mixing will occur with the NAM
being the outlier with low-level moisture. There is additional
uncertainty in surface heating given smoke within the region.
Confidence in severe storm coverage is too low for probabilities,
but strong to marginally severe surface gusts and isolated hail
would be possible if greater moisture remains during the afternoon.

..Wendt.. 09/05/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 060558
SWODY2
SPC AC 060556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Potential for severe weather appears low on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
On Sunday, an upper-level trough will move through the Lower Great
Lakes and Northeast. Surface high pressure will build most areas
east of the Divide. A surface cold front will likely remain in parts
of the eastern Carolinas and the Southeast. Within the
southern/central High Plains, low-level moisture return will begin
on the western flank of the surface high.

...Eastern Carolinas...
Mid-level winds will be moderately strong within the southern
Mid-Atlantic region. These winds will weaken quickly with southern
extent across the Carolinas into the Southeast. Ample cloud cover
will stunt surface heating. Even so, widely scattered to scattered
convection appears possible along the front in the coastal plains
region. Where locally greater heating can occur, a stronger storm or
two could develop and produce localized gusty winds.

...Central/Southern High Plains...
A narrow zone of modest MLCAPE (around 1000 J/kg, generally) will
develop as moisture returns northward. Storms are more likely to
develop within the higher terrain with more uncertainty along the
lee trough. Forcing for ascent will be nebulous and at least weak
inhibition may lead to limited coverage and duration of any
activity. Models do depict a subtle perturbation approaching the
central High Plains towards late afternoon. Later developing
convection would likely be elevated, sustained by the low-level jet.
With modest shear and buoyancy, the stronger storms could produce
small/low-end hail, but overall severe risk continues to appear low.

..Wendt.. 09/06/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 070549
SWODY2
SPC AC 070548

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible over portions of the
central and southern High Plains Monday.

...Synopsis...
Northwesterly mid/upper flow will persist over the central U.S.,
flanked by an upper ridge over the Rockies and an upper trough from
the Great Lakes to central Gulf Coast. An embedded shortwave trough
will emanate from the central Rockies into the Plains. At the
surface, a weak lee low should form over the Dakotas with a trailing
surface trough from the Upper MS Valley into the southern High
Plains. Southerly flow will transport low 60s F dewpoints
north/northeast within a narrow corridor over portions of the High
Plains northeast into the eastern Dakotas and MN.

...Central and Southern Plains...
A moderately strong remnant low-level jet will likely be ongoing at
the start of the period aiding in modest return flow over the High
Plains. One or more clusters of storms may also be ongoing near the
apex of the LLJ across KS and NE. A narrow plume of 60s F surface
dewpoints will likely extend northward along the lee trough to the
low into the Dakotas. Heating of the moistening air mass and ascent
from the impinging shortwave moving out of the Rockies will support
diurnal destabilization along and east of the trailing lee trough,
potentially allowing for re-intensification of the early morning
storms. Additional isolated thunderstorm development is also
possible by late afternoon along the length of the lee trough.
However, strong capping and early-day clouds/remnant convection
could limit storm coverage/development.

Should storms form/redevelop, moderate buoyancy and increasing
northwesterly flow aloft will support some storm organization.
Veering wind profiles with around 25-35 kt effective shear
magnitudes would support a supercell or organized multicell risk.
Steepening mid-level lapse rates, and supportive shear could favor
some hail, while drier low-levels suggest damaging gusts are
possible.

...Pacific Northwest...
Ahead of the upper low moving onshore over the Northwest, scattered thunderstorms appear likely Monday afternoon and evening. Moderate southwesterly flow will overspread a warm but modestly moist air
mass. Given the limited moisture, buoyancy is expected to be fairly
weak as well. Still, steep lapse rates and the stronger mid-level
flow could support sporadic strong gusts from high-based storms
across central OR into southern WA.

..Lyons.. 09/07/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 080555
SWODY2
SPC AC 080554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Mon Sep 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible over the central and southern
High Plains Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
Amplified mid-level flow will be in place over much of the US
Tuesday, as a broad upper low continues to deepen over the
Northwest. To the east, shortwave ridging is forecast to intensify
over the central Rockies and High Plains, while broad and incoherent
troughing persist over the eastern half of the CONUS. Southwesterly
mid-level flow will gradually increase over the central High Plains
as a series of weak embedded perturbations pass through the crest of
the upper ridge. This will aide in strengthening a lee trough,
supporting south/southeasterly low-level flow and some severe storm
potential.

...Central and Southern High Plains...
As the mid-level ridge continues to build over the Rockies and
adjacent Plains, a lee trough is expected to sharpen from western SD
into the TX Panhandle. Continued low-level southerly flow will
advect seasonably rich moisture along and east of this feature,
supporting diurnal destabilization with 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE
available. However, forcing for ascent from several weak
perturbations passing through the top of the ridge is likely to
remain nebulous and displaced westward of the primary surface trough
axis. Residual capping, and the lack of broader synoptic support is
expected to limit diurnal thunderstorm development over the Plains.
Eventually isolated development is expected along the lee trough by
early evening, aided by an increase in the southerly low-level jet.
If these storms can become sustained, marginal supercell wind
profiles would support a risk for large hail and strong gusts from
western KS and southeastern CO into the OK/TX Panhandle vicinity.
Still, substantial uncertainty remains regarding the coverage of any
stronger storms able to develop. Have introduced a 5% risk for hail
and wind potential.

To the west of the surface trough, strong heating and weak ascent
should allow isolated to widely scattered, likely high-based,
thunderstorms to develop over the higher terrain of CO/WY and
adjacent High Plains Tuesday afternoon. Steep low-level lapse rates
could support an occasional severe gust with this activity, but
limited buoyancy and modest flow aloft suggest little organized
severe threat.

...Upper Midwest...
A weak surface boundary/cold front will extend from eastern SD into northwestern IA and south-central MN Tuesday. Low-level warm
advection atop this boundary in a modestly sheared and weakly
unstable environment will support periods of showers and
thunderstorms as the front slowly sags southward. Overall severe
potential is expected to remain low as convection should remain to
the cool side of the boundary and likely be elevated. But, a
stronger storm or two could develop and produce small hail or
locally gusty winds over portions of eastern SD and western MN.

..Lyons.. 09/08/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 100552
SWODY2
SPC AC 100551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with hail and severe wind
potential are possible across Montana and the Dakotas. Additional
isolated strong storms may develop over the central High Plains and Intermountain West.

...Northern and central Plains...
South/southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to increase over the
Northern Rockies/Plains ahead of a shortwave trough along the
eastern periphery of a broader upper low. Weak height falls will
overspread the western fringes of a moistening low-level air mass as
a warm front moves northward with a surface cyclone over central MT.
Low-level upslope is expected much of the day along and north of the
front, which should result in moderate destabilization (MLCAPE
~1500-2500 J/kg). However, some inhibition is also expected given
the glancing influence of the upper ascent and warm mid-level
temperatures. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
expected late in the afternoon along and north of the warm front
from eastern MT into western ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates and
veering wind profiles could support some supercell structures. It
remain unclear if much of this activity will be surface based given
the best ascent will be north of the front. Still, the degree of
buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear should support some risk
for hail and severe gusts.

Farther south, isolated storms are possible near a surface trough
from eastern WY into western NE/SD. Forcing for ascent should be
weaker with some residual capping likely limiting development within
the warm sector. High-based storms may form within the drier air
west over the terrain before gradually drifting eastward toward the
richer surface moisture. With limited buoyancy and vertical shear,
organized severe storms are unlikely, but isolated severe gusts are
possible given the steep low-level lapse rates.

...Four Corners and Western Slope...
A belt of stronger mid-level flow southeast of the upper low over
the Great Basin will overspread a modified monsoon air mass in place
over northern AZ/NM into western CO and eastern UT. Afternoon
heating should result in a few hundred J/kg of MLCAPE above
low-level inverted-V thermodynamic profiles. Isolated to widely
scattered storms should develop and move off the higher terrain by
mid morning. Some organization of these storms into clusters or
transient supercells is expected owing to elongated mid-level
hodographs beneath the stronger flow aloft. Given the steep
low/mid-level lapse rates, isolated severe gusts and some small hail
are possible with the stronger storms.

..Lyons.. 09/10/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 110557
SWODY2
SPC AC 110555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE FOUR CORNERS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts are
possible across the Four Corners region on Friday. Additional storms
are possible over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Friday.

...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest...
A shortwave trough and enhanced southwesterly flow will move out of
the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains Friday as upper
ridging begins to move eastward. Associated with the approaching
trough, a weak lee cyclone along a stalled front over the Dakotas
will draw rich low-level moisture westward toward a second weak cold
front moving out of the Rockies. Modest ascent is expected much of
the day along and north of the surface low/front across northern WY,
western ND and central/eastern MT. While cloud cover and early
morning convection may temper heating somewhat, elevated buoyancy is
expected to support scattered to numerous storms through the
afternoon. With 35-45 kt of southwesterly flow aloft extending mid
and upper-level hodographs, a few elevated clusters or supercells
are possible. Steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer
shear could support isolated hail and strong gusts with the
strongest storms, though confidence in the overall severe risk
remains fairly low given the potential for clouds and early morning
storms.

Convective coverage may increase through the evening and overnight
hours as a 35-45 kt southerly low-level jet develops over the
Plains. CAM guidance remains quite dispersive, but some solutions
show the potential for isolated severe gusts with elevated storm
clusters moving eastward across the Dakotas overnight.

A second cluster of elevated storms may be ongoing at the beginning
of the period across the eastern Dakotas/western MN associated with
a weak shortwave trough and low-level warm advection along the
stalled front. If this occurs, a low-end wind/hail threat could
exist during the morning as the shortwave continues
east/southeastward toward the Great Lakes. Buoyancy and ascent
should decrease quickly with eastward extent suggesting only a
limited severe risk.

...Four Corners...
A shortwave trough and an associated belt of stronger southwesterly
flow aloft will be present over portions of the eastern Great Basin
and central Rockies Friday. An associated cold front will also shift
eastward, impinging upon a modified monsoon air mass across northern
AZ/NM into eastern UT and western/central CO. A band of showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms are likely be ongoing early in the
period ahead of the front. While moisture content (PWATS 0.5-0.8
inches) will not be overly robust, it should be sufficient to
support weak diurnal destabilization amid cloud cover and remnant showers/storms. Convection should gradually increase in coverage
along the front and across the higher terrain by late morning and
early afternoon. The stronger mid-level flow could allow for a few
storms to organize into mutlicell clusters or weak supercells. With
steep low and mid-level lapse rates present, strong gusts appear
possible with any sustained storms, along with small hail.

..Lyons.. 09/11/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 120601
SWODY2
SPC AC 120600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible over parts of the southern and
central High Plains and northern Plains Saturday.

...Synopsis...
The western upper trough will continue its slow progress eastward on
Saturday. The trough is expected to eject into central Plains by
early Sunday morning. A few embedded shortwave troughs will pivot
into the northern Plains and stronger mid-level winds will extend
into the southern Rockies. At the surface, a low in the northern
Plains will become more diffuse during the period.

...Southern/Central High Plains...
On the southern edge of the broad western trough, stronger mid-level
flow will be perpendicular to the southern Rockies into part of the
Front Range. Low-level moisture will advect into the regions given
surface southeasterly winds. Moisture will be greatest in New Mexico
with mid/upper 50s F dewpoints. Farther north, flow will become much
more meridional and moisture will be more limited. Within the
southern Rockies, cloud cover associated with the trough will
generally keep low-level lapse rates weak. However, modestly steep
mid-level lapse rates with the cooler air aloft and 35-40 kts of
effective shear will promote some risk for a few supercell
structures by the afternoon. Isolated large hail will be the main
risk. While a similar hail threat will be present for much of the
Front Range, this area is also more likely to receive greater
surface heating. Steeper low-level lapse rates will support a threat
for isolated severe gusts with the strongest storms.

...Northern Plains...
Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the
period. By this time, steeper mid-level lapse rates will likely have
diminished for much of the western Dakotas into eastern Montana and
Wyoming. This activity will be driven by a northward moving
shortwave trough and low-level warm advection. Despite cloud cover
complicating the low-level thermodynamic environment and the surface
low gradually weakening with time, there may still be zone of
greater potential in the eastern Dakotas where steeper mid-level
lapse rates will be. Greater shear/forcing will overlap greater
buoyancy during the afternoon in this area as well. The strongest
storms, if they develop, will likely be near and east of the
Missouri River. Small to isolated marginally severe hail appears to
be the primary hazard.

...Upper Midwest...
A weak shortwave trough is expected to move through southern
Wisconsin into the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. This will
promote a zone of warm advection that will allow potentially
scattered storms to develop. While shear will be modestly enhanced
with the shortwave, greater buoyancy and lapse rates will be
displaced to the west. A stronger storm or two could occur, but
limited confidence in greater severe storm coverage precludes probabilities.

..Wendt.. 09/12/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 121720
SWODY2
SPC AC 121718

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND
PARTS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible over parts of the southern and
central High Plains, northern Plains, and Midwest/Great Lakes on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
Persistent lee troughing will continue across the central/northern
Plains on Saturday as southwesterly flow aloft continues across the
central Rockies. A weak cold front will move out of the Rockies and
into the central/southern High Plains Saturday afternoon. Across the
northern Plains/Upper Midwest, a warm front extending east from the
surface low will strengthen.

...Southern/central High Plains...
Forecast soundings across the southern/central High Plains indicate
widespread mid to upper-level clouds across the region Saturday
morning as convective debris from Day 1 convection across the
Southwest drifts slowly east. This will likely persist for much of
the day and limit overall heating. Despite this cloud-cover, weak to
moderate instability is forecast as temperatures warm into the low
70s with dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s and 500mb
temperatures around -10 C. Mid-level flow will strengthen through
the morning with effective shear around 30 to 35 knots during the
afternoon across eastern New Mexico, eastern Colorado and the
western OK/TX Panhandles. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe
weather threat mostly isolated. However, any pockets of
clearing/greater instability could support a more organized severe
threat in localized areas.

...Northern Plains...
Several rounds of thunderstorms will be possible across the Dakotas
on Saturday. 12Z CAM guidance has a consistent signal for elevated thunderstorms Saturday morning across northern South Dakota where
isentropic ascent is maximized in a region with moderate instability
and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates and 40 to 45 knots of
effective shear. Some large hail will be possible during this
morning round of storms.

In the wake of this activity, moderate to strong instability is
forecast to develop across central/western South Dakota with minimal
inhibition by mid-late afternoon. Overall forcing will be subtle,
but weak height falls and a nearly uncapped environment may be
sufficient for isolated strong to severe storms Saturday
afternoon/evening with a conditional threat for large hail and
severe wind gusts given around 30 to 35 knots of effective shear.

Regardless of afternoon activity, an additional round of storms is
likely Saturday night as the primary mid-level shortwave trough
ejects from the Southwest into the central Plains. Strong height
falls and increasing ascent with moderate to strong elevated
instability could result in a few elevated supercells capable of
large hail and severe wind gusts late Saturday night and early
Sunday morning.

...Midwest/western Great Lakes...
Elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning
across southeast Wisconsin/northern Illinois on the nose of a
low-level jet. Isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts will be
possible with this morning activity. Some guidance suggests this
cluster maintains through the morning and becomes surface based as
it moves south across Indiana during the afternoon/evening. While
this is a possibility, the more likely scenario is weakening of
morning storms as the low-level jet weakens/veers. Additional
thunderstorms would then be possible during the afternoon along
remnant outflow/boundaries during the afternoon/evening. Regardless
of the exact evolution, moderate instability and moderate to strong
shear would support the potential for organized storms and at least
a localized threat for large hail/damaging wind gusts.

..Bentley.. 09/12/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 130552
SWODY2
SPC AC 130551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the northern
Plains into the southern High Plains tomorrow (Sunday).

...Synopsis...
A negatively tilted upper trough will pivot northward across the central/northern Plains, around broader cyclonic flow aloft, as a
second upper trough traverses the Pacific Northwest tomorrow
(Sunday). A surface low will develop and intensify while drifting
northward across the Dakotas through the forecast period.
Strengthening of the low will encourage the development of a
southerly low-level jet, which will result in both northward
moisture advection, and increased vertical wind shear, to support at
least isolated severe storms across the Plains.

...Great Plains States...
Widespread clouds and precipitation may be underway at the start of
the period (12Z Sunday) given the warm-air advection regime in place
ahead of the surface low. Through the day, some breaks in the cloud
cover will support adequate insolation to generate surface-based
buoyancy ahead of a confluence boundary. Surface temperatures may
rise into the 70s F, amid 60+ f dewpoints, yielding 1000-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE in spots. However, mid-level lapse rates are expected to be
modest at best (e.g. 6-7 C/km), with the aforementioned MLCAPE
constrained to tall, thin profiles. However, 20-40 kt southerly flow
at 850 mb (driven by the low-level jet), overspread by 40-50 kts of south-southwesterly 500 mb flow, will yield elongated, mainly
straight hodographs across the central/northern Plains. Effective
bulk shear of 35-45 kts is possible from NE northward, with weaker
values, but relatively more curved hodographs possible farther south
into the southern High Plains.

By afternoon peak heating, the rejuvenation of warm-sector
convection ahead of the confluence band is likely, with scattered
multicells and perhaps supercells possible from the Dakotas to the
TX Panhandle. Storms will first develop across the northern Plains
by early afternoon, with gradual southward development likely by
early evening. Given modest lapse rates/thin CAPE profiles amid
straight hodographs, the severe threat appears relatively isolated,
with occasional severe gusts/hail the main threats. A tornado is
possible over the northern Plains if a supercell can become
sustained within the low-level jet axis and traverse a corridor of
locally stronger surface-based buoyancy. The severe threat should
gradually wane after dark, when surface-based buoyancy diminishes
with nocturnal cooling and increased MLCINH.

..Squitieri.. 09/13/2025

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ACUS02 KWNS 140508
SWODY2
SPC AC 140506

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears generally low on Monday.

...Discussion...

A pair of upper shortwave troughs will be located over the northern
Rockies and the Upper Midwest on Monday. The upper trough oriented
over the eastern Dakotas/MN will lift north into Canada through
early evening, while the northern Rockies upper trough meanders
slowly eastward, developing an upper cyclone over MT/WY. Another
upper cyclone is expected to persist over the Carolinas, while upper
riding builds across the Pacific coast states and Midwest.

At the surface, seasonal boundary layer moisture will be in place
across the southern and central Plains into the MS Valley, resulting
in pockets of weak to moderate instability. Any stronger instability
is likely to remain displaced from stronger vertical shear, which
will be quickly shifting northward from the Upper Midwest into
Canada with the departing upper shortwave trough. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will still be possible within a corridor of
60s F dewpoints and moderate instability from the Ozarks vicinity
into MN within a low-level warm advection regime. However, severe
potential will largely remain low given limited shear and forcing
for ascent. The exception could be a strong storm or two in
MN/western WI where effective shear magnitudes around 20-25 kt and
MLCAPE up to 2000 J/kg will be in place. However, given the upper
trough will be departing the region, subsidence may limit storm coverage/longevity across the area.

Additional scattered storms are possible across parts of the
northern/central High Plains ahead of a weak surface front/trough.
Steep midlevel lapse rates will be in place, and strong heating will
aid in steepened low-level lapse rates amid a deeply mixed boundary
layer. Severe potential should remain limited given weak
shear/instability, but inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles
could foster locally gusty winds with any showers/thunderstorms.

..Leitman.. 09/14/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 150538
SWODY2
SPC AC 150536

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday
across portions of the central Plains.

...Central/Southern Plains...

A positively tilted upper shortwave trough will slowly develop east
from the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies to the
northern/central High Plains on Tuesday. Deep-layer flow is expected
to remain fairly weak, limiting stronger vertical shear. At the
surface, a weak cold front will extend from northern MN into
western/central NE by 00z. A secondary weak surface trough will
extend southward across eastern CO into the southern High Plains.
Ahead of these surface features, upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints
will be in place beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates. This
will allow for moderate destabilization across a mostly uncapped
warm sector.

Large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper trough will
likely be ill-timed with peak heating, and may not arrive across the
region until after 00z. Nevertheless, low-level frontal convergence
may support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development near the
surface cold front by late afternoon. Given boundary-parallel
deep-layer flow, this activity may quickly become elevated/undercut
by the surface front. Nevertheless, sufficient instability, steep
low-level lapse rates and at least modest effective shear (less than
25 kt) should support an isolated/marginal severe wind/hail risk
from portions of northeast CO/northwest KS into western/central NE
and south-central SD through the evening.

Additional storms may develop near the weak surface trough from
southeastern CO/eastern NM and spread east into adjacent portions of
southwest KS and the OK/TX Panhandles. Instability and shear are
expected to be very modest across these areas. However, a deeply
mixed boundary layer/steep low-level lapse rates could support
locally gusty winds with this activity.

...NC/VA Tidewater...

A coastal low will be located near the Outer Banks Tuesday morning.
Low-level flow will be enhanced near/north of the low center, with
some weak instability near the coast. Locally strong gusts may
accompany showers and thunderstorms for a few hours during the
morning. As the low drifts north through the day, more substantial
instability is expected to remain offshore.

..Leitman.. 09/15/2025

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 160544
SWODY2
SPC AC 160542

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited on
Wednesday.

...Central/Southern High Plains Vicinity...

An upper trough will overspread the northern Plains to the southern
High Plains. With time, an upper low is forecast to develop within
the broader troughing regime over the northern High Plains vicinity.
Deep-layer flow will generally be weak, limiting vertical shear.
However, a surface front is forecast to be oriented from far
southeast CO/northeast NM eastward along the KS/OK border.
East/southeasterly low-level flow near the boundary could enhanced
vertical shear locally, with effective shear values up to 25-30 kt
possible by late afternoon/evening. Boundary layer moisture will be
modest, in the 50s to low 60s F from the Raton Mesa vicinity into
southwest KS and the OK/TX Panhandles. Nevertheless, steep midlevel
lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft will support MLCAPE of
1000-2000 J/kg. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop by
late afternoon in the upslope flow regime. The strongest storms
could produce sub-severe hail and gusty winds across southeast
CO/northeast NM, southwest KS and portions of the OK/TX Panhandles.


...Northern OK into MN/WI...

A seasonally moist airmass will be in place to the east of a surface
boundary extending from eastern SD into central/southwest KS by late
afternoon. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible, and may
be ongoing across parts of the region Wednesday morning. This
activity and associated cloud cover cast doubt on where stronger destabilization will occur through peak heating. Furthermore,
vertical shear is expected to remain weak, and lapse rates will be
poor, especially with northward extent. A strong storm or two will
be possible where stronger destabilization occurs, but overall
severe potential is expected to remain limited.

..Leitman.. 09/16/2025

$$
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